In his final blog on the up-coming elections Professor Michael Thrasher, Lecturer at the University of Plymouth focuses on the issues related to the local elections.

In this third report I want to consider the likely winners and losers at the local council elections – where more than 10,000 seats are at stake across 312 councils. The local contests have been largely ignored but the scale of Labour losses, in both councils controlled and seat losses will be a significant factor in the events of the weekend following.

Should Gordon Brown succeed Tony Blair he will most likely inherit Labour’s weakest position in local government for half a century.  Already controlling fewer councils and with fewer councillors than at any time since the early 1970s, Labour is set to fall further back. Crucial evidence is provided by the results from local council by-elections.  Our projection of these results into a national equivalent vote share suggests that Labour will struggle to poll much more than a quarter of the national vote in May and will finish in third place.  This is about a five point drop in support for Labour since 2003, the last time most of these seats were fought.

Labour control in councils like Blackburn with Darwen, Corby, Gravesham, and Plymouth is under threat.  Many Labour councillors seeking re-election, possibly one in five, will lose their seats.  Even large majorities will not be sufficient to sustain the tide running against Labour.

But the real significance of these local elections may not be Labour losses as much as how the spoils are divided among the main opposition parties. 

The Conservatives have been leading the field in opinion polls and local by-elections alike for some time.  But (and it’s a big but) the party continually falls short of the critical 40% mark –the minimum national vote share likely to be needed to win an overall majority in the House of Commons. These contests offer David Cameron the chance to show that he can lead a Tory fight back that has real and enduring substance.

For that happen to the party must register in excess of 600 net seat gains and push the total number of councils it controls up from 169 towards the 200 mark.  The shire districts are likely to be the Conservatives’ most fertile territory, but the advance will need to be broad.  In Braintree, Dartford and Rugby a modest swing from Labour is required.  By contrast the Liberal Democrats are the obstacle to be overcome in Harrogate, Mid Suffolk and Shepway. 

The Liberal Democrats approach these elections with a mixture of hope and trepidation.  Doing well in recent local by-election contests the party’s opinion poll ratings have been less strong.  With more than half of all their councillors having to defend their seats this time, the party is extremely vulnerable to a wobble in its support.  Most of the councils the Liberal Democrats control seem relatively safe, but scores of seats narrowly won in 2003 are at risk of being lost. 

As in 2006 the Liberal Democrats are fighting on two fronts. With the Conservatives still failing to make headway in the inner cities of the north, it is the Liberal Democrats who are threatening Labour here.  However, the party’s task is more difficult in the midlands and southern England where the principal threat is the Conservatives.

Apart from the main parties there are thousands of candidates contesting either as Independents or for one of the smaller parties.  More than three-quarters of all Independent councillors in England will be seeking re-election and their chances of success are greatly affected by whether or not the major parties enter the electoral battle..  All three mayoralties with elections (Bedford, Mansfield, Middlesbrough) are held by Independents, and in, for example, Barnsley, Burnley, Epping Forest, Lancaster and Stoke-on-Trent there is added interest provided by some flavour of Independent candidates. 

Support for these can be seen as an ‘anyone but Labour’ reaction in the party’s former heartlands, but keep a look out also for other parties such as the Greens, BNP and even UKIP which look as if they will play an increasing role in local politics.

But if recent local elections represent a trend then watch out for the unexpected.  There is growing evidence that an increasing number of voters are influenced by local factors.  Voting against the local rather than national incumbent party has become more common.  In 2006 the Conservatives lost control in Richmond-on-Thames at the same time as their party nationally was winning new councils and council seats. 

The local elections in Scotland see radical change.  There is a new voting system (now giving Scottish voters a choice of four!).  The Single Transferable Vote should provide a more proportional outcome.  And like the Scottish Parliament make it very difficult for any one party to secure an overall council majority.  However, Scotland is not without experience of ‘hung’ authorities. Currently 12 of its 32 councils are under no overall control (NOC), with a further three on a knife-edge. 

The infamous Labour one-party fiefdoms are really confined to little more than half-a-dozen councils in the central belt.  But it is certain that places like Glasgow (Labour won 90% of the seats with 48% of the vote last time), Midlothian (83% and 43%), and West Dunbartonshire (77% and 47%) will need to adjust to rather different political arrangements after May 3rd.  Maybe they will be able to offer some lessons to the politicians trying to broker a deal at the Holyrood Parliament!

(Posted by: Professor Michael Thrasher, University of Plymouth Lecturer)

Comments

[Maurice - Northumberland 4 May 2007 16:38:11]

Gary - It looks like you have done a cracking job... for the BNP.

[Trevor 4 May 2007 16:27:22]

""In the blue corner is the withering Dave and in the red corner is the clunking fist. The Tories are dead. What joy! Rejoice!"
Posted by: Gary Elsby stoke 1 May 2007 13:43:52
------------------------------

I'v been struggling to recall what Gary's comments remind me of. And the penny has suddenly dropped ......

It is Comical Ali, the Iraqi Information Minister in the Iraq war.

"There are no tanks and no Americans in Bagdhad - no, never! We have annihilated them." ... as the American tanks rolled past the cameras behind him.

[Trevor 4 May 2007 16:21:53]

Well so far the Tories have gained 743 seats and New Improved Labour has, erm, lost 461.

Yes, Gary, I must agree that New Labour are doing wonderfully well ... for the country if not themselves!

Honestly, I ask you - what kind of person would try to put a positive spin on losing 461 seats ? (Answer: A person who has swallowed similar Labour spin for the past 10 years.)

Minus 461 seats eh? As Sgt Major Williams was fond of saying "Oh dear, how sad, never mind."

And as Gerry and the Pacemakers were fond of singing:-
"I like it, I like it" :-) :-)

[Victor, NW Kent 4 May 2007 15:18:06]

Even the former Lord Mayor of Stoke-on-Trent lost his council seat to the BNP. I did check and for 3 consecutive local elections the BNP has about tripled its vote each time in Stoke. Even the Gary Elsby factor has not stopped their advance.

As I write the Conservatives have gained 550 seats and 19 councils with many more votes to be counted. That looks as though the Clunking Fist will start his fight from a prone position on the canvas.

By the way Gary said that he never sees any asylum seekers. Perhaps that is because they never let him out?

[Trevor 4 May 2007 14:10:53]

"In the blue corner is the withering Dave and in the red corner is the clunking fist. The Tories are dead. What joy! Rejoice!"
Posted by: Gary Elsby stoke 1 May 2007 13:43:52

".... and they're coming to take me away, ha ha.
They're coming to take me away, ho ho.
To the funny farm.
Where life (under New Labour) is lovely all the time."

What do you think of the local elections so far Gary?
(Oh sorry - I forgot - It's obvious Labour are WINNING isn't it? (Cough cough)

Stay calm. Here come those nice men with the white coats.

[Dr Prod, England 4 May 2007 13:24:45]

The BNP have gained 2 more seats in Stoke. So much for your predictions Mr Elsby.

[Gary Elsby stoke 2 May 2007 16:42:48]

I'm sure that Griffin is neither scared or troubled by my claims of Labour victory in this City that you claim is a done deal for racism. Labour has performed magnificently and has routed all contenders.

The biggest noise has been sent to silence me. Their loss and a big mistake. Read the papers for Stoke and let's see how the rest of the Country fared.

On a personal note, I will be watching for the anti/pro Blair vote and will observe the difference.

[Victor, NW Kent 2 May 2007 14:16:09]

I don't know Nick Griffin, nor do I wish to know him but I am sure he is really trembling in his boots that the great and fearsome Gary Elsby won't let him win seats. I have heard him speak - his policies are abhorrent to me but he is at least coherent and does not live in LaLaLand.

[Gary Elsby stoke 2 May 2007 09:45:02]

Dr Prod, I'm afraid you know very little about Stoke. Yes it's a BNP target, but that was last years news and it's been met head on this year.

Nick Griffin and myself have come to an agreement. He wants top 'grand slam' a ward in this city (3/3 seats in a single ward) and make headline news, but he understands that I will not let him. Try as he may this year.

The media have portrayed this local election as a mini-General Election based upon what Tony has done or not done. This was anticipated here in October 2006 and has been incorporated into our plans. Can't speak for the rest of the Country though.

If there is to be an inquest into many Labour seats going to 'others' despite a frail Tory attempt at politics, then let us see if they viewed Tony's reign as positive or negative. If they have run a negative Tony/Labour campaign, then let's see the result, (this is a Labour tactic in dodgy territory) and then compare this with the positive/ Tony/ Labour campaign.

Everybody has gained in ten years of Tony. Even the rich have paid more into the NHS thsn before and they MUST be very proud of this gesture (yeah, they're oh so proud!)
Pensioners have never had it so good or been so warm (in Spain, spending the fuel allowance).

Let's not forget the patient, on the (Tory) waiting list, waiting for a (Labour) operation and waiting a whole ten weeks. What a shocker!

When this is pointed out to the 'floater voter' they have no answers.

Asylum seekers? What asylum seekers? We aint got none.
"They're everywhere" says the floater voter'. Find me one then says Gary! As you can guess, I have enjoyed myself and will continue to do so. Long live the Labour Party!

[The Morning Post Sri Lanka 2 May 2007 01:51:34]

I am still waiting to hear the outcome of the numerous Police enquiries relating to postal voting fraud during the last general election. Has Lord Goldsmith vetoed any prospective legal action against those mainly Labour Part supporters involved or are those investigations ongoing?

[Maurice - Northumberland 1 May 2007 16:23:50]

MADNURSE - It is time to place the preffix 'Mad' where it belongs - and it isn't you!
Guess who justifies it, take your pick out of four or maybe all four.

[Madnurse 1 May 2007 15:04:57]

Gary:

You must be an ostrich with your head well and truely buried in the sand. Take it out and look around you. Is it really as you see it? Are the ordinary people better off in terms of wealth, health and life style? Are our children better educated, bearing in mind education and brainwashing are not the same.

During a very long life I have seen many changes in this country and I strongly believe that those good honest working class heros that founded the Labour party are now spinning in their graves. Times do move on but fundemental principles remain the same, what was morally correct one hundred years ago is still correct today. Mr Blair has done some good in some areas, but at what cost?

Twenty bad pieces of legislation is a very high price to pay for one good one.

[Dr Prod, England 1 May 2007 14:56:52]

Gary, I'm now convinced you have taken advantage of Labour's reclassification of cannabis in order to view the world in the rose tinted manner that you do. The BNP are very strong in the Stoke area. I know this because I happen to work with many people from that very area and who will be voting BNP this time due to the massive rise in immigration in the south Cheshire/North Midland area... a reflection perhaps that they are less than satisified with the local Labour council.

Tax credits are benefits in all but name and only feed low pay. They enable employers to pay less. How very new Labour. Any pensioner with their own private or workers pension are worse off. Again I know this because my Grandmother finds herself paying for taxes and benefits that the workshy and idle get for free.

The Human Rights you speak of seem only to apply to criminals. Labour have left the WORKING man with no-one to vote for. I repeat, they are the party of the idle chav, the immigrant and the champagne socialist. No WORKING man has benefited from Labours policies. The policies you speak of are aimed at the criminal, the idle and rich.

[Maurice - Northumberland 1 May 2007 14:51:30]

GARY - you reckon another 10 years will see the job done.
What job would that be? Based on the last 10 years you must be living in the twilight zone if you think the English are prepared to put up with another 10 years of treason, wastage, incompetence, sleaze, self serving, a growing body count, mediocrity and ruled over by the mediocre.

[Maurice - Northumberland 1 May 2007 14:26:39]

Has the Prof taken into account or made any allowances for fraudulent postal votes?

It's what every 3rd world country has to deal with, so as we are in the same boat, what are the +/- percentages to cover such activity?

[Effie 1 May 2007 14:03:50]

Correction Damon, although I will never agree with Trevor’s politics he is at least facing reality and he feels exactly as a good many Life-Long Tory Party supporters do now. He sees things as they are not through rose coloured Specs. This is the cold hard facts read and learn:

We have had just over a year of spin, sham and slip-ups for David Cameron - but the electorate is not fooled. They are using this election to beat Blair up with, make no mistake about that. His lead it more anti-Blair than Pro-Cameron.

Comparing Cameron with Blair at the same stage of the cycle, a year after he was elected Labour leader, Tony Blair had an astonishing and unprecedented 44 per cent lead over PM John Major. What has Cameron got over Brown/Blair? Approx. 7%. He is ahead in the polls, but he realises and so does everybody else that his lead is paper thin and phoney because his opponent Tony Blair, will be leaving shortly

Let's dwell a few moments on the U-turns and gaffes. Cameron has tried - and so far failed - to drag his party into the 20th century by demanding they select more women and ethnic minorities to run for Parliament. Constituency after constituency rejected his A-list of preferred candidates and settled for the same middle-aged, middle-class, white men as always.

Repeated calls for his Shadow Chancellor George Osborne to come clean about the party's tax and spend plans have been met with a deafening silence. Although to be fair to Osborne he did announce a tax policy to the Daily Telegraph one morning retracted it by lunch time on the same day and it was dead and buried by evening.

As for Cameron’s Flip- Flopping, I have in front of me chapter and verse MOST of them, each and every statement he has made along with the retractions, Dates etc, which can be verified and I will be quite content to share with all and Sundry given that the blog regulators will allow it.

[Gary Elsby stoke 1 May 2007 13:43:52]

Dr. Plod, first let me tell you that the BNP around here have been slaughtered, well and truly murdered at each and every level.

Your account of Labour dissillusionment is straight out of the Daily Mail and is fundamentally flawed.

Tax credits have rebalanced the economy in favour of families and pensioners which the last Tory Government forgot about. It may be that your taxes are up, but from when, 10 years ago? There are no starving pensioners or children anymore, that has been replaced by social justice and fairness. Another ten years should see the job through.

I think you'll find that Ted Heath signed us up into the EU and called it the EEC (check out the contract) Thatcher must have loved it because she signed up as well,and Major must have wanted to get in on the act because he put his name to it also. Not bad for 50 years membership and peace, freedom and human rights that the Unions tried to get for 200 years.

Iraq? Blair won his election on Iraq and went on for TEN WHOLE YEARS!

In the blue corner is the withering Dave and in the red corner is the clunking fist. The Tories are dead. What joy! Rejoice!

[mark wales 1 May 2007 12:30:15]

Tax credits - what a con! To qualify for working tax credits you have to be over 25 and working over 30 hours a week. Then when you do get them they overpay so you have to pay them back!

[gerald manchester 1 May 2007 12:02:00]

I read the news and blogs with mounting disbelief.

Reminds me of when I was working in the 70s I was constantly nagging everyone about the state things were in and telling them not to get in too much debt. A 'socialist' friend former railway fireman, married to a school teacher who's children went to private school, had foreign holidays, big car said things had never been better.

I took early retirement in 1985 became a market trader, made a pile of money on the stock market. When I called in he told me how bad things were. He could not understand why I started laughing.

This is the best government we have ever had, and I am a Tory. Things are getting a bit frayed now, but as with Thatcher there is no credable alternative. Why is the public always so wrong? As they say on the stock market. When the public start buying. Get out quick.

That is how to succeed Always go against the majority.

[Trevor 1 May 2007 10:47:51]

Damon Re. "What David Cameron has done to the Conservative Party is no different to what Margaret Thatcher did in the 70s"

Agreed - but, as a lifelong Tory at 62, with one major caveat... Thatcher got it right. Cameron has got it totally wrong.

Hug-a-hoodie, "green" trainers, wind turbines on your roof (in 'windy' LONDON?!), Blair-type spin with photos of 'Call Me Dave' sweeping up rubbish/painting over graffiti (do me a favour - we've just had 10 years of that), no condemnation of big meddling government, or of high taxation or promise to correct it.

What Dave has done to the Conservative Party is sold it down the river and turned it into the Cameron/New Labour Clone party. Nevertheless, I wish him luck. Any government except this current incompetent shower.

[Dr Prod, England 1 May 2007 09:23:43]

Mr Elsby, may I explain why Labour have failed the working man?

I am a skilled worker/manager, former tradesman. I earn above the average wage but not enough to pay higher rate tax. I own my own house, have children, am married and run two cars. The average working man. Under Labour I am paying much more tax for absolutely no benefit. My council tax is up. My fuel taxes are up. My NI is up. My income tax is up due to fiscal drag. I’ve lost count of the stealth taxes on air fares, insurance etc.

My local village is plagued by youth crime and vandalism. This crime did not take place in 1997 on anywhere near the same scale as it does now. My local hospital is closing wards and transferring them further away.

Our local factory has closed. Our local schools are above average on performance, but always have been. The children that attend them however are ruder than they used to be. 10 years ago my drive to work was 5 miles (no buses or trains). Now I have to travel 35 miles (still no buses or trains) due to the massive losses in manufacturing jobs under Labour.

I honestly cannot think of a single thing Blair’s Government has done that has in any way made myself or my family better off. The only winners I can see under Labour are the immigrant, the chav and the well off. Not only have we suffered financially, we also face a police state that harangues the working/ middle classes whilst letting real criminals off.

The Human Rights Act that Blair’s Government ratified has ensured that the law abiding live in fear whilst the criminals have an employ of thousands of lawyers working on their behalf to free them, and to ensure that they roam the streets free of fear from prosecution.

Blair has, through the back door, signed us up to even more diktats from the NeoCom EU which has no mandate from the British People to govern us as we have never has a referendum on a whether we wanted to become part of a socialist experiment, only whether we would like to trade with a common market.

We now see thousands of British people losing their jobs to immigrants who will accept lower wages. I know that even in your neck of the woods that the BNP are growing stronger on this issue. Labour have only promoted immigration as a good thing. Now they are realising their mistake.

So hopefully I’ve given you an insight into how the average working man has been shafted by Labour. And all this without mentioning Iraq.

[fluffy, London, ENGLAND 1 May 2007 05:46:13]

"... Then I hit them with the truth. There can only be one truth and facts are facts whether they like it or not."

Gary Elsby.

And is that truth the word of Allah or Blair...?

[Khalid 30 Apr 2007 19:23:50]

"E.L.O" I'll vote for an honest party if my local council will let me vote! Ooops, did I put the cat amongst the pigeons? Nevermind, "Mr Blue Sky" will keep us educated, informed, entertained as well as tanned.

[Victor, NW Kent 30 Apr 2007 18:07:19]

Gary - let us have another look on Friday. At the moment Stoke has 61 councillors. Of those 21 are Labour and 4 are BNP. The rest are a mix of special interest groups, some Liberals and a very few Conservatives.
In other words, Labour run the Stoke Council in alliance with a variety of other groupings. It is hardly true to say that Stoke is a no-go area for any party as, for a city of its size, it possibly has a more varied council representation than any other.

By the way, Gary, the NHS own statistics show that average increase in medical staffing has been pretty constant since 1993, about 3 to 4% increase per year. That is roughly the same as the population increase over the same period taking into account the vast number of illegal and temporary migrants.

[Craig Hants 30 Apr 2007 18:03:04]

Anybody who lives in England should never vote for this Scottish mafia New Labour, it's the only way they can stay in power. Tax the English, subsidise Scotland and Wales, and I'm a Scot in England. Wake up people of England.

[Damon - Birmingham 30 Apr 2007 17:40:20]

Trevor,

From your comments on here I think you've been listening to too much Labour rhetoric. The Labour Party is scared of David Cameron - and that is why the pro-Labour bloggers are perpetually on here claiming that Cameron is a Blair clone - he is not.

What David Cameron has done to the Conservative Party is no different to what Margaret Thatcher did in the 70s - he has taken a look at where the country is and changed its policies to what the country needs. (To give credit to Mr Blair he went through a similar process with his party in the 90s).

In the 70s this country's biggest problem was that we were being crippled by overly powerful unions, hyper inflation, nationalisation and Gov't spending that was way out of control. Whilst 3 out of these 4 are more of a concern now than they were in 1997 they are nowhere near as bad as they were in 1979.

What David Cameron has done is look at what are the real problems of today - global warming, loss of civil liberties, Gov't wastage, and the degeneration of society and has moved the political fight into these areas. In the case of Global Warming closely followed by the Labour Party who stole the Conservatives ideas almost as soon as they were published!

[gary elsby stoke 30 Apr 2007 15:53:21]

I've had a lot of Trevor's on the doorstep with long lists of Labour failures. I listen, and I listen, and I listen... to total claptrap and media fed distortion. Then I hit them with the truth. There can only be one truth and facts are facts whether they like it or not.

Winter fuel allowance, new schools, new hospitals, more fuel allowance, free bus travel, tax credits for families and pensioners, 85,000 new nurses (all who are apparently starving in the run up to the elections), 32,000 new doctors ( all starving etc). I could go on and on as the list is endless.

For every door I've been on, if they wanted to judge a local candidate on a National agenda, they failed. Cameron's Tories don't do anything, not even fight the BNP. So what? Labour will do what is their duty come what may. It is a responsibility that the Tories have given up on.

They kill and want to kill foxes quite well though.

[Effie 30 Apr 2007 15:36:07]

Trevor: Re: Looks like it's UKIP for me.

I listened to Nigel Farage on TV just over a week ago and I really must admit what this guy was saying really impressed me a lot. Now while I would not vote for him, I just hope Gordon Brown takes on board quite a lot of what this fellow had to say as he made damn good sense, I wish there was a few more out there like him.

I do not know just who Cameron thinks he is fooling but I, as you well know had him weighed up since the very beginning. He is a 'Con Man' through and through.

[Trevor 30 Apr 2007 14:44:04]

"The truth is that they are totally dead in this area and have left the field of responsibility to Labour."
------------------------------

In that case, they should be charged with treason. Because that is a bit like leaving the promotion of sexual morality to John Prescott.

Unfortunately, Gary, you suffer badly from an ism - Socialism in your case - which leaves you unable to take a clear view of anything in the field of the ism to which you subscribe.

With all due respect, anyone who could accuse New Labour of "responsibility" in anything but consecutive and unceasing disasters needs their head examined.

[Trevor 30 Apr 2007 14:27:35]

My sentiments exactly Barry. As a lifelong Tory, I voted Labour in '97 because I simply could not vote for Major's sleaze-ridden lot. OK Blair, you and your government have made Major look amateur in the sleaze stakes. Well done, you fooled me nicely; but you won't do it a second time.

I just wish the Tories had a better leader to hold the torch. We certainly don't want a Blair Mk II implementing Cameron policies rather than Conservative policies (you don't change fundamental party policies which are generations old just because you think it might get you elected!).

Looks like it's UKIP for me. They are now carrying the Conservative banner. Checked their last manifesto and found only a couple of things I couldn't wholeheartedly agree with.

[Victor, NW Kent 30 Apr 2007 13:51:56]

Thank you Prof. Thrasher, for that explanation. Some might take the view that as a voting system becomes more complex it also offers more scope for manipulation and fraud. A head count is simple and verifiable with care. The STV tends to put matters in the hands of boffins as outcomes are not clear to the general public which is forced to accept whatever it is presented with.

Such systems provide the probability of lengthy and expensive legal actions in which no jury will be competent to act.

In these ways democracy becomes more distant from the people and still more in the hands of the political elite ruling class.

[Caz -Yorkshire 30 Apr 2007 12:55:05]

I will definately be voting in the local elections, and I will be gladly voting BNP. The three main parties are a disgrace and out of touch with the British public riding rough shod over any worries they may express.

Tony Blair signing over more of our rights to the EU, just another thing to kick us in the teeth with, swamping us with immigrants, and an illegal war, wasn't enough was it? Hasn't he and this pathetic Labour government done enough damage to this country? I think so! I can't wait to see the back of them, and maybe they will get the message when they get a roasting in the local elections.

[Gary Elsby stoke 30 Apr 2007 11:01:19]

I disagree with Professor Thrasher's view of the BNP playing an increasing role in local Politics. True they play an increasing role in local elections, but most certainly not any role in local politics. Basically, they are disallowed from doing what they wish, even if they ever took overall control.

The BNP are totally negative in local politics and are largely ignored everywhere. The other parties run Cities between them with no input from the BNP.

This will not stop people voting racist and due to the Conservative party being wiped out and dissolved, the LP has had to field candidates on their behalf (have a think).

David Cameron's Tory party is portrayed by the media as being slick and sharp (but no policies) and 'ready for Government'. The truth is that they are totally dead in this area and have left the field of responsibility to Labour.

No problems with that at all.

[The Morning Post Sri Lanka 30 Apr 2007 01:44:46]

I think that a number of New Labour cadres here are 'whistling in the dark' in respect of both impending local elections as well as the upcoming coronation of Prince Prudence! Upon his election as Labour Party leader, Blair immediately set about destroying any and every socialist sentiment that once great party ever held. He even ditched its name in favour of New Labour.

It was power at any price, power at any cost. No lie was too great. You have twenty four hours to save the NHS. I have no plans to raise tax at all' were the biggest but by no means the only whoppers told by 'Tone' who then went on to win three consecutive elections wearing Thatchers clothes.

However I believe the UK electorate have his measure now. They have at last woken up to those twin illusions. Blair and New Labour. With regard to 'Prince Prudence' Polls show that very few people perceive him to be PM material, with just 28% of the electorate having any confidence in him at all, his political future appears somewhat bleak to say the least.

Finally anyone who thinks that hard pressed UK taxpayers, who are being slowly but surely bled dry by the greatest tax raising Party and Chancellor in this countries history, would go out and vote for ever more New Labour tax and spend ideology, is living in a dream world! New Labour, its Chancellor and aspiring leader, are both well and truely passed their respective sell by dates.

[Barry UK 29 Apr 2007 17:05:04]

The quicker this shower of corruption get sent to the opposition, the better. I used to think there was nothing more corrupt than the Major government. Well this lot have beaten them hands down.

Who will I vote for? Certainly not Labour, although, I hate to admit it but my family have always voted Labour in the past. This time, who knows, the one thing you can be sure of is, it won't be for liar Bliar or robber Brown!

[Bernard From Horsham 29 Apr 2007 14:11:19]

Craig has been reading too much left wing press. A control freak like Gordon Brown isn't going to change his spots (people just don't), all the best ministers have been sacked or moved on, Brown won't appoint many Blairites in sensitive ministerial posts as he wants to get his own way.

As for Cabinet Government, Gordon Brown doesn't know the meaning of collective responsibility. With him, if your are in the in crowd, you're ok, if not, forget it.

A few years of misery and it'll be all over come the next General Election. You heard it here first!

[Madnurse 29 Apr 2007 12:20:26]

I am of the opinion that the main problem with local elections is the same as with national elections namely the party system.

Local people have different priorities and concerns depending on where they live. The one size fits all system that is the party system effectively takes local issues out of politics. People that have been elected to represent local people are bullied by party whips and central party HQ to toe the party line. A good example of this recently was a cabinet member on a protest over a local hospital closure.

This problem has been made more visible by the centralising policies of the Blair administration.

Opposition parties often make a lot of noise about local issues but in my experience seldom take any action when in power.

Perhaps proportional representation is the answer if we must retain the party system. This would make government at local and national level work by negotiation rather than the implementation of un popular policies by what is effectively an elected dictator. Perhaps we will get a real statesman as PM sometime in the future instead of an arrogant egotist as we have now. I just can't see one on the horizon at the moment.

[fluffy, London, England 29 Apr 2007 08:40:57]

These elections will be Scotland's last chance to 'put-up-or-shut-up'. As today's poll in the NotW shows England want nothing more to do with them.

However, since when have elections had anything to do with democracy. New Labour has been caught rigging them before and, according to this week's The Economist, are likely to have done again.

[Craig 28 Apr 2007 22:11:50]

I have always said it and I will say it again. Cameron's lead in the polls is a fickle one which will be overturned by Brown, a true statesman when he takes over. What's more, the Tories will turn on Cameron quicker than any previous leader as he has surely sold their sole in his quest for power. He speaks of Labour spin and then stampedes his way to every photoshoot, never mind policies. If I was a Tory, I would be very worried as the elections on May 3rd will be his final hurrah, the public are not daft. They can see through Cameron and they are lending their support to punish Blair. That will change when Brown comes along and he sets out his agenda and crafts his cabinet to reflect the change. Don't forget what happened in the Commons to Osborne when he tried to punish Brown for pensions. Not a chance, it was man against boy and it will be the same for Cameron. You heard it here first!!

[Charles Maidoh,agbor,Nigeria 28 Apr 2007 19:58:55]

There is no doubt in my mind that Labour will receive a thumping at the local elections on Thursday, the question is how big will be the thumping? In the 90s, Labour was the dominant party of local government [in the Midlands especially Birmingham where I lived in the Handsworth area, the only rival to the Labour party were the Lib-Dems].

Not any more, come May the 3rd the Tories are set to put in a good show and rightly so, because for the past year David Cameron has worked assidiously to win the trust of middle England. Has he succeeded? May the 3rd will be the litmus test.