Read Election Analyst Professor Michael Thrasher's detailed analysis of last night's council by-elections by clicking this link.

Some succour for the Conservatives today.

Local council by-elections last night saw the Tories steal a seat in Sunderland from Labour.

They also managed to hold Cheshire County Council - and the projections from the results show a projected 4.6% nationwide lead.

I have to say, I don't think the chaps at Conservative Campaign Headquarters will be cock-a-hoop at the news.

The seat was taken in the north east, where Northern Rock is still very much on people's minds. These are local elections, and using these results to project national trends is fraught with danger.

The real test comes from Sunday onwards - at the conference. Read my preview on the politics website from tomorrow.

(Apologies to Mark from Edinburgh - I should have posted much earlier than this!!)

EDIT: Thanks to vin in the comments for pointing out my "deliberate" mistake. Sunderland is, of course, in the north east. I blame all this sea air I've been getting...

And to respond to victor's comments - as I said, I'm sure the Tories were pleased at the local results. It's just that these rarely provide an accurate indication of what would happen at a General Election. For that, we have to look to opinion polls; but you're right, we must also be mindful of the problems posed in accepting those at face value.

Comments

[Philip, Bristol 29 Sep 2007 15:57:05]

Adam. Really surprised that the James Purnell fake pic story is being buried by the media.

Actually, on second thoughts, no I don't think I am surprised. I mean, he isn't a Tory MP is he?

[The Morning Post 29 Sep 2007 10:33:32]

Guess they must be grateful for small mercies. This Tory lot remind me of the John Major era. Firmly in the self destruct mode!

[carol-ann liverpool 29 Sep 2007 01:54:22]

I think this is an indication that Gordon would do well not to get too carried away.

The Prince of Darkness, himself, Peter Mangle-some, said last week that the party shouldn't get "too self-congratulatory" and he makes good point.
I think Dave and Osbo overdid the 'Let's Get Gordon' campaign.
They criticised him so much and tried to undermine his reputation as a great Chancellor, that they had the opposite effect than was intended: the public got sick of them bashing him just as he was about to realise his life's ambition.
They tried to cut Gordon off at the pass and got ambushed themselves by the floods.

They should have been developing some thought- through policies of their own.

Bashing The Opposition is so passé, that is why Gordon's 'All the Talents' plans have been an inspiration.

The British public have a soft spot for the underdog and can soon get tired of people getting too big for their boots, so Gordon needs to take a little step back now, after all the publicity he has had in recent weeks, on the basis that 'familiarity breeds contempt.'

I have noticed - as others have - how quiet the Tories have been in recent weeks.

Is this because they have nothing to say - or have they, instead, been busy cutting and pasting a few popular policies together and otherwise getting their act together for the Tory Conference?
The silence is not only deafening it is worrying.
I think there will be a lot of crossed digits and tongue biting next week... but, you never know, the well trained robots of Tory Central Casting may just give Dave a really really bad time: they may even, yikes: boo him!
Now, wouldn't THAT be fun!

[Vin 28 Sep 2007 18:21:02]

Sunderland is a North West seat? Oh Dear!

[Victor, NW Kent 28 Sep 2007 18:17:46]

Well Niall, why should they not be pleased at CCHQ, that reality belies the theoretical polls?

I have no idea who gets polled by the various pollsters - I have never been polled and I know nobody who ever was. As I have met some tens of thousands of people I would have thought that at least one or two would have mentioned that they were approached.

I have never had a lot of confidence in political polling and place it as on a par with long-term weather forecasting.

Despite the enthusiasm of the Sky and BBC teams over Gordon Brown, it may well be that the actual voter has a different viewpoint. It is not easy to forget so quickly the very bad governance of Tony Blair and it is very hard to dissociate Brown from that, especially the shambles of NHS funding and the war in Iraq.

Even for the political left there was not much to enthuse about in Gordon Brown's master speech at conference. Basically it seemed to be "trust me, I'm a straight kind of guy".
Well, we've been there and done that. Many of us don't want to repeat that experience.

[Simon from Edinburgh 28 Sep 2007 17:47:07]

You made a big thing of Labour's local election gains last week - even interviewing
a winning candidate. No doubt we can expect the same coverage for these Tory gains?

[E Welshman 28 Sep 2007 13:03:53]

Come on Niall,

Would you have been so down-beat if Labour had won the seats?

I think all you Sky correspondents ought to let us bloggers in on how you would vote in a general election.

I don't mind saying that I would vote Conservative, so you know where I come from - what about you telling us all where you are coming from ?