Three opinion polls out this evening all show a significant shift in support for David Cameron, following what is generally considered to have a been successful Conservative Party conference in Blackpool this week.

A YouGov poll for Channel 4 News and a Populus poll for the Times has the Labour lead down to 4 points and 3 points respectively, while an ICM poll for the Guardian has the parties neck-and-neck.

We'll have to wait till the weekend to find out whether GB still has the stomach for an autumn election, but some within the Brown camp are already saying that an early poll would be "a gamble" for the PM, and acknowledge that the chances of Brown going to the country soon are receding.

Comments

[carol-ann liverpool 7 Oct 2007 06:34:33]

Bill

Maybe we should be having a debate about the power of the media, then.

Who IS running the country the government, the people, or the media?

[John Charlton 5 Oct 2007 13:41:13]

Oh Gordon - what a pickle! Call an election and you might set a new record for the shortest stay in #10 since George Canning. Don't call it and you'll look weak and indecisive.
You thought you were home and dry so you staged those cynical stunts (Bank deposit guarantees and 1,000 troops home for Xmas) to steal headlines from the Tories. Ignoring the convention of 'letting the other guy having his say'. Then you allowed speculation about an election to grow. Personally, I think you might scrape home or get a hung Parliament. Then the Labour Party can set about you the same way as they did with your 'war mongering' predecessor. The Conservatives have the right policies and the momentum now. It really is a pickle isn't it?

[John Delaney Torquay 5 Oct 2007 12:24:18]

Peter form Fife
I can't agree with you more you have hit the nail on the head,But what i would say about Brown is this everything that cameron spoke about at the oarty confrence and his mates Osbourne and Hague will be ripped to pieces by Brown,all these tories that write on these blogs etc don't want an election because they no that MrCameron/Blair will fail and they dont want to admit it.I just wish Gordon would open himself up at PMQS and show this little upstart tory boy what he is all about.

[Merv. Beszant, Dubai 5 Oct 2007 11:31:12]

T.M.P.,
I suppose my simple answer would be that he's a politician, and there are very few of them that I would even pay in washers.

[The Morning Post 5 Oct 2007 10:41:08]

Merv

If Brown had no intention of calling an election why did he not say so? Furthermore he fuelled speculation by his sudden dsire to 'press the flesh' in Iraq and bringing forward the Comprehensive Spending Review without one word of explanation. I suppose after ten years of government, misleading the British people is second nature to him!

[Merv. Beszant, Dubai 5 Oct 2007 09:23:05]

I don't think Gordon ever had any intention of calling an election, and is probably quite relieved that the latest opinion polls have convinced his advisers that going to the country is not such a good idea after all.
Pity, 'cause election night is great entertainment!

[Peter, Fife 5 Oct 2007 08:14:55]

Today we will see results of the latest example of David Cameron switching; last week he banned Blackpool rock with his name running through it because “it was not that kind of conference”, yet today because of a blip in polls the Conservatives will become ‘Tabloid Tories’ expressing opinions in the language of the red tops.

“…Mr Osborne said: "Either we have this election - which the current opinion polls and the state of the Conservative Party suggest we've got a good chance of winning - or he bottles it…”

I now await the phraseology which will link Brown and bottle, the typical result of a playground wheeze or tabloid ‘newspapers’ working to ‘dumb it down’ so their readers will comprehend their message.

This is nothing new, I predicted, and I was not alone, that if Gordon Brown does not call an immediate General Election the Conservatives will claim they are driving the agenda, if he doesn’t they will claim he is fearful of their leader, party and their policies; the weakness in such a claim is that politics and running the UK is ever so slightly more complex than a playground wheeze.

Conservative are running round like excited schoolboys even they know that with the best polls of today the Conservatives would again be ‘also ran’s; once the reality of the fiscally challenged bribes are unravelled and the euphoria of David Cameron’s stage performance diminish we may well see an election called.

Positive employment opportunities for David Cameron will come from theatre land; the only problem being an equity card, would David Cameron join what is effectively a ‘Trade Union’ operating a closed shop.

Remember it is the editors of ‘newspapers’ who choose to insult the intelligence of their readers, not yours truly.

[Victor, NW Kent 5 Oct 2007 07:53:20]

So, what decision will the Shrinking Fist take? Will he risk 5 years with a tiny majority and many fractious Labour backbenchers? Will he soldier on with the majority he inherited from Blair and watch it slowly shrink away?

There are matters hidden in these polls - will Scotland become a near Labour-free zone,losing him many of his closest allies? Will LibDem voters defect to Cameron in such numbers as to produce 40 or more freak results in England?

Would an MP such as Quisling Davies hold his seat?

Nail-biting decisions to be made at No. 10 and a lot of faith to place in the young Scottish Mafia to bring home the bacon [or haggis].

I think he will bottle it and hide his fear in a welter of spin.

[Khalid 5 Oct 2007 05:37:54]

Such is the pace and devotion of politics, that one week the polls provide an “Enigma” for those wanting to provide democratic times for all, whilst at the same time show an immense “Turn Around” insofar as to public perception, intention and choice.
Whilst GB does not have to call an election if he so chooses, but could someone remind me when did leading politicians put people before political careers? Call it prudent or whatever, and whilst he’s in the mood to do a climb-down, he might as well spend a little time reviewing matters of TV Licence, as every other public sweetener appears to have fallen on a flat screen!

[The Morning Post 5 Oct 2007 01:52:12]

LOL

So much for the conviction politician! He's more contridiction than conviction! Brown used to be indecisive but now he's not so sure! Forget the polls Gordon, nobody believes them anyway. Go with your instincts. If you believe that the country is with you and that your policies are right, then ask the people now!

[Bill, Middle England 4 Oct 2007 21:43:00]

It all goes to show how important media coverage has become to gaining power - sadly.

What an appalling indictment of our fellow citizens that so many appear to be swayed by a few TV appearances - whether that be Gordon or Dave.

New Labour has been a triumph of spin over reality -Gordon's brief reign even more so than Tone's - these Polls merely show how easy it has been to dupe so much of the electorate over the past 10 years.