Has Gordon Brown been bluffing or will he call a General Election this month?
Opinion Poll Poker is the game everyone is playing as surveys rain down on us this weekend.
So you can be an informed, punter Michael Thrasher and I have assembled a rule-of-thumb guide to key benchmarks, focussing on the gap between the two main parties and what it would mean at a General Election.
Please note this is a very rough guide indeed, it only looks at Labour and Conservatives, and assumes support for the Liberal Democrats and other parties stay the same.
Majorities are given according to the New Boundaries which will be contested at the up-coming General Election.
Remember too that most opinion polls have a 3% up or down margin of error, so you need nerves of steel to gamble on this data.
Labour Lead 4% or More. Gordon does better than Tony did last time.
Labour Lead of 3% (36%/33%). Status Quo. Same as 2005 election. Lab Majority 48.
Labour Lead of 1% (35%/34%). Lab Majority of 22.
Conservative Lead of 1% (34%/35%). Lab lose overall majority but still largest party.
Conservative Lead of 7% (31%/38%). Conservatives become largest party but short of overall majority.
Conservative Lead of 11% (40%/29%). Conservatives win with overall majority.
Dear Adam,
People are fed up with having so many Elections in such a short time.
Its only 3 months that Gordon Brown has been in as PM.
So we should wait and see how he performs in Government.
David Cameron is begining to show signs of being a little 'boring and a kid that has lost his toys with the announcementn of no Election.
Posted by: Mike Summers 7 Oct 2007 14:16:14
Adam
Did you factor in the Scottish dimension? Labour appear to be a busted flush there now with the SNP ruling the roost! Totally different from the last election.
Posted by: The Morning Post 5 Oct 2007 02:03:18
So, after all "The Supremes" acts of conference, "You Keep Me Hanging On"? Watch this space, as they say...Oh and welcome back prof!
Posted by: Khalid 4 Oct 2007 20:04:22
Is it Dave or Gordon who is 'Cool Hand Luke'? LOL
Gordon should be big enough not to rise to the bluff - Dave is putting all his chips on damaging Gordon and is hoping that he will take the bait -basically because Dave is in the last chance saloon!
Yee-Awww!
Posted by: carol-ann liverpool 4 Oct 2007 19:30:37
Is our electoral system really now such that Labour only need a 1% lead over the Conservatives to have a majority but the Conservatives need a 7% lead over Labour to have a majority?
Posted by: Sacha 4 Oct 2007 18:14:16
Having been a Boy Scout, I have always been a strong supporter of rough Guides!
Posted by: Merv. Beszant, Dubai 4 Oct 2007 18:12:06