They think it's all over: it is now, as someone once said.

The Conservative Spring Forum, at the fabulous Sage conference centre in Gateshead, was one of the shortest conferences I have ever been to.

It started at 2pm on Friday and was all over by roughly the same time on Saturday. "Short and sweet," one Shadow Cabinet member told me after it ended.

As Tory MPs left Gateshead, the News of the World poll that gives their party a nine-point lead over Labour after Alistair Darling's unpopular Budget was certainly sweet news for them.

But I'm not convinced about David Cameron's "family friendly" agenda that dominated his speech at the end of the conference.

Obviously he thinks it's a vote winner. But I thought it was rather odd that the Tory leader promised to spend £200 million on recruiting more health visitors and at the same time told his party they would have to get used to saying no more often than yes to spending pledges.

I also thought the Cameron speech was a little flat in delivery compared with some I've heard him make, like his widely acclaimed speech in Blackpool last autumn and his electrifying leadership-winning speech, also in the Winter Gardens, in 2005.

I suggested to Andy Coulson, Cameron's media guru, that perhaps the Tory leader isn't so keen on reading a speech from a script, as he did here in Gateshead, but prefers an unscripted, off-the-cuff style of delivery.

He disagreed and said he didn't think the Gateshead speech, with quite a bit of detail, was the sort that would work off-the-cuff.

Of course, the family theme in Gateshead was preceded by the hoo-hah over the Tory leader allowing cameras from ITV into his home.

The BBC were so cross, apparently, that someone recorded Cameron rehearsing his speech in the hall on Friday evening, with a view to  broadcasting it on the Today programme. There was a huge row between the Beeb and Tory spin doctors, by all accounts.

All a bit silly. I can't see what all the fuss is about. I agree with Cameron that inviting the cameras into his home was "modern politics". But I'm sure there will be plenty who disagree.

That argument certainly isn't all over.

Comments

[Eddie Allen 18 Mar 2008 18:27:16]

Very good poll result for David Cameron and his team and now he needs to build on it.

Pantherman,

Well said mate, couldn't be more accurate if you tried. It's a shame there's a few (26%), of a small minority who haven't exactly smelt the coffee yet and still in denial mode, but my guess is when it comes to an election, Tories will win and Liberals and the munchkin 'extreme socialists' (New name - New game), will be squabbling for second place.

This time, Labour had best put the lights out when it leaves, only they'll be at Labour Party Headquarters and not those of Britain.

Can't wait for the ceremony mate, hope we don't get any bad mouthed gatecrashers spoiling the occasion.

[Stephen Williams 18 Mar 2008 16:07:03]

Mike,

Have Labour reversed all the Tory privatisations namely water, electricity, gas, buses etc, etc?

Have Labour refused to renew train company franchises when they came up for tender so that we could eventually get back to a renationalised railways system?

Have Labour reopened all the steel works that were shut down?

Have Labour reopened all the coal mines that were also shut down?

Nah thought not.

All the luxuries that we enjoy & take for granted nowadays were always deemed to be out of the reach of the average working man wages namely video recorders, TV's, holidays, share ownership, home ownership, car ownership etc, etc.

Labour opposed the Tories every step of the way when going to a free market economy while still in opposition but now they enjoy it just as the rest of us do.

These changes for the better would never have happened if the Tories had listened to Labour back in the early 80's.

[James, London 18 Mar 2008 10:55:49]

What business is it of the BBC?

[Mike Simpson 17 Mar 2008 20:51:21]

You really are pretty deluded Pantherman and living on cloud cuckoo land. Let’s examine and take apart the drivel from the list, “Good blokes the Tories are.” What, as I choke on my tea…”None of this denying voters a say” Eh? (evidence? They aren’t in power so like any Opposition will call for an election 24/7…hardly groundbreaking!), “fiddling expenses” (Hmmm does Tory MP David Conway and his greedy sons and friend, ring any bells?!), “cash for dishonours” (Inquiry found no evidence, though we do have Cash for Questions…major sleaze during the Tory years, in fact a Tory Cabinet Minister went to jail over it!, “peddling spin” (Hmmm you must be joking, David “Hilton” Cameron and his third-rate tabloid editor and PR adviser Andy Coulson?!), “pinching other party's policies” (was that the policies nicked by leaks from Government Ministries including the Treasury), “losing data” (civil servants, so ‘operational’ rather than political doesn’t suit the Tories though, will they change if god forbid they were ever let loose with the levers of power?!), “ruining the economy by dithering” (Tory policies would bankrupt Britain and bring the economy to its knees!), “nicking people's pensions” (you wouldn’t be referring to Tory heroine Maggie Thatcher removing the link to retail prices, could you… I guess not!), “fiddling the unemployment figures” (evidence? Again totally lacking in any substance or credibility, remember under you lot (the Tories) we had 3.5m unemployed!), “opening the floodgates to immigrants who have no jobs to go to and live on benefits” (no, not the case Labour has tightened up on immigration, they are getting stick from the liberals for doing it..so Labour is taking action on immigration, whereas the Tories just talk about being tough, but actually do notjing about it!) , “none of this change your culture around” (eh?), “none of this warmongering in Iraq” (Tories were all for it, so what is your point?) and “political hype during another party's conference” (eh? So everything should stop when a party is holding a conference, time to get real methinks!), “none of these drain your blood taxes (Tory tripe, where are the tax cuts coming from..the Tories have a £6,5bn blackhole in their plans), “none of these lunatic aid programmes giving all our money away to look good on the world stage whilst signing away our sovereignty” (calm down dear, time to lie down in a darkened room and count to 10), “none of this bleating heart 'give me a go I've only been in my unelected position for 3 months and have managed to (ahem) mess everyhting thing up” (god forbid you seriously must be a Tory central office stooge!), “none of these xenophobic lies like 'British jobs for British workers, and none of this law changing to remove our freedoms, no schools being demolished, no nurse training positions cut whilst employing 40% of immigrant nurses, no unpad taxes by rich non-doms, no running off at the mouth about how ell we're doing when the entire population know different.” (gibberish, but totally nonsensical NuCON propaganda. So you are against demolishing old antiquated victorian schools and replacing them with modern, economical schools equipped for the 21st century).

Oh, I too can think of another list but we'll just leave that as I look forward to spelling out the true facts about the lies and Tory spin of David “Chameleon” Cameron and Co.

[Stephen Williams 17 Mar 2008 15:14:22]

Pantherman,

To coin a phrase from Philip, "you simply can't quote facts to Nu Lab supporters"

Apologies Philip for nicking one of your lines.

[Pantherman 17 Mar 2008 13:56:17]

Good blokes the Tories are. None of this denying voters a say, fiddling expenses, cash for dishonours, peddling spin, pinching other party's policies, losing data, ruining the economy by dithering, nicking people's pensions, fiddling the unemployment figures, opening the floodgates to immigrants who have no jobs to go to and live on benefits, none of this change your culture around, none of this warmongering in Iraq and political hype during another party's conference, none of these drain your blood taxes, none of these lunatic aid programmes giving all our money away to look good on the world stage whilst signing away our sovereignty, none of this bleating heart 'give me a go I've only been in my unelected position for 3 months and have managed to (ahem) mess everyhting thing up, none of these xenophobic lies like 'British jobs for British workers, and none of this law changing to remove our freedoms, no schools being demolished, no nurse training positions cut whilst employing 40% of immigrant nurses, no unpad taxes by rich non-doms, no running off at the mouth about how ell we're doing when the entire population know different.

Oooo, I can think of another list but we'll just leave it at that for now until an election is called, or until the electoral commission and the cops have the bottle to tell us the results of their enquiries which they think we've all forgotten about.

[Susan Carruthers 17 Mar 2008 12:02:16]

You have got to be joking Pantherman, do you really think ‘Old Etonian Toff’ Dave has the concerns of the average man and woman at heart? As for being gloomy and despondent I take it every NuCon supporter is the same. It is too bad for you and your like that an election need not be called till June 2010 at which point I’m quite sure Britain will no longer be suffering the effects of the ‘global credit crunch’.

As for calling the Conservative front bench ‘good blokes’ I’m glad you think so. I don’t think many agree. Most of the Conservative front bench are too busy with second jobs or highly paid speaking engagements. I understand ‘Shallow Dave’ wants to clean up politics. He has been forced to do so by the antics of Derek Conway, Dave Davis’s buddy, lining his pockets at the expense of Mr and Mrs Tax Payer.

[Victor, NW Kent 17 Mar 2008 11:57:55]

Peter, Fife

My crystal ball is a bit dusty but I suspect people will also start registering protest votes against the LibDems for their eternal leadership struggles [and disappointments] and for their recent shenanigans.

My larger worry is the level of disenchantment with politicians of all stripes. Democracies need a lively, politically aware populace, willing to register dissatisfaction to keep the professional politicians on ther toes. Local election polls of 30& or so do not show that we have that luxury, in consequence of which our civil freedoms are being gradually extinguished whilst MPs and Councillors alike feel free to act as they please.

I agree that single party control of any assembly is the wosrt possible outcome. An amusing story from my locality. Swanley Council comprises 4 parishes of which the largest, Hextable, [decidely not Labour] wanted to separate and become a parish council under the local district council. Swanley Council consisted of 9 Labour councillors and 3 others and put a myriad objections up against this move. I have no useful opinion on the merits of the matter but some of the tactics adopted were pretty disgraceful even though two-thirds of Hextable voters said they wished a separate identity.

Suddenly last May the pendulum swung and the new Council had 6 Labour members and 6 others. That produced a sudden rush to give Hextable its autonomy - which will leave 6 Labour councillors and 3 Conservatives at Swanley.

An example which verifies our joint opinion.

[Peter, Fife 17 Mar 2008 11:05:03]

Victor, NW Kent,

Yes I do agree that councils may well see some changes in the forthcoming local election which I am all in favour of; I do not like to see councils which have one or two party control as in the case of the Liberal led Newcastle council, we need a broader perspective on local matters not merely single party or coalition dogma.

As most protest votes against the Government of the day tend to be collected by the Liberals do you think that the good people of Newcastle will strengthen or weaken the Liberal’s hold on this city?

[Victor, NW Kent 17 Mar 2008 10:02:55]

Peter, Fife

You are indeed correct when you set out the composition of Newcastle Council. May I add that this complacent body is one of the few cities whose star rating for council performance dropped in 2007, of course, to nothing like the depths of the all-LibDem Liverpool Council.

It may well be that the next local elections will see some changes in these council chambers.

[Peter, Fife 17 Mar 2008 09:41:55]

Why do so many Conservatives supporters choose to hide behind a nomdeplume, do they feel uncomfortable with their given names as does one of their shadow cabinet?

[Pantherman 17 Mar 2008 09:06:47]

David Cameron is a good bloke and William Hague, David Davis and George Osborne are good blokes. They have the will, the ideas, the intelligence and the confidence to make Britain thrive again by freeing the people and industry from this ludicrously oppressive and over-bureaucratized Stalin State we live in which is crippling us and the country in taxes and unnecessary bureaucratic dictat where we feel nothing but dour, gloomy and dispondent under the dour, gloomy and dispondent policies of Labour.

It's time Brown called an election if he has one ounce of decent respect for the people of this country who wish to modernise, deregulate, free up and move forward and to control the future destiny of Britain with the right team who are all 'good blokes'.

[Peter, Fife 17 Mar 2008 08:54:02]

Northernhousewife,

If as you report that “...journalists who crossed to Newcastle said that their enquiries of the residents were approving of Dave, universally...” I will await the ousting of the sitting MPs for Newcastle upon Tyne Central, Newcastle upon Tyne East & Wallsend, Newcastle upon Tyne North by unanimous vote at the next General Election.

I find such reporting lacks credibility when we further examine the Political Composition of Newcastle council; Independent, Labour 31, Liberal Democrat 46, Total 78, Vacancies 0; surely this would be the biggest swing in political history.

[Northernhousewife 16 Mar 2008 23:44:00]

Peter,
I don't know about Gatehead, but Ben Brogan is reporting that journalists who crossed to Newcastle said that their enquiries of the residents were approving of Dave, universally.

[Khalid 16 Mar 2008 19:40:47]

Insofar as the matter surrounding the recording by many a camera, I bet other wanna be [Shed Seven]'s will copy his idea and go on [Standby].

[JH - London 16 Mar 2008 17:51:12]

Brilliant Opinion polls for the Conservatives follows a truly outstanding week for Davey C. Brown now compared to the biggest Labour loser of them all Michael Foot on the front page of the Sunday Times.

Very good move by Dave to show that he is a real family man unlike that odd gimp McSporran. Emphasis on family stability everything this country needs after 11 years of theft and waste from the socialist third raters.

Keep it up Dave, how prophetic that old windbag Kinnock was when he suggested a party would be ground into the dust at the next election, trouble as ever with kinnock was that he got it horribly wrong. It is Labour's third raters who will be consigned to the scrap heap and not before time.

[Jon, cephalonia, greece 16 Mar 2008 16:26:45]

All UK politicians, Labour, Tory, and the rest need to talk less and act more. Maybe Big Dave has learnt this. I am sure after 11 years of Nu Labour, that everybody is fed up with spin. The only way to get the country back on its feet again is actions. B'liar/Bottle are all mouth NO action (Apart from Taxation), so lets give Big Dave ago, surely he cant do any worst.

[Neil McLeod 16 Mar 2008 16:18:17]

In terms of polls there's not much good news for Labour north of the border either.

The Scottish edition of the Sunday Times had a poll on Scottish Parliament voting intentions and leadership ratings.

Scottish Parliament constituency vote:

SNP: 39% (+6)
Lab: 31% (-1)
Con: 15% (-2)
Lib: 12% (-4)
Oth: 3% (+1)

Scottish Parliament regional vote:

SNP: 40% (+9)
Lab: 30% (+1)
Con: 13% (-1)
Lib: 11% (-)
Oth: 5% (-10)

Projected seats:

SNP: 57
Lab: 44
Con: 16
Lib: 12

How is Alex Salmond doing as leader of the Scottish Government

Well: 70%
Badly: 17%
Don't know: 13%

POSITIVE RATING: +53

How is Wendy Alexander doing as leader of the Scottish Labour Party

Well: 30%
Badly: 52%
Don't know: 18%

NEGATIVE RATING: -22

MRUK Cello interviewed 1,028 adults across Scotland between 29 February and 9 March.

[Ralph 16 Mar 2008 14:39:30]

John,

Wouldn't the Tories leaving Gateshead have been more pleased with the YouGov poll showing them 16 points ahead?

With your 'woe is the Tories' post about them when they were only a few points ahead I would have thought a 20 year high was worth a comment.

[John F Aberdeen 16 Mar 2008 12:40:42]

Good points Bernard from Horsham.
GW Bush made a point of going after terrorists and those who support them,, in other words..enemies and those who support the enemies.
Writing as a Tory, our enemies are the in the Labour and LiB Dem parties,, the BBC has been unstinting in its support for Labour , through programmes sympathetic to Labour plus employing biased and self confessed Labourites like Jim Naughtie and Sarah Montegue on R4 Today etc.
So good on David Cameron for in giving ITV access to his family,, and ignoring the BBC and, as they,re support of the Tory parties enemies,, what did they expect.
BTW the 16% Tory lead today is a big poke in the eye for all you so-called experts at Sky who were happpily reporting how the tories were slipping (Ive yet to see you reporting the big Tory lead),,, I guess Murdoch will be wanting you to change sides again.

[Peter, Fife 16 Mar 2008 10:23:14]

Oh Adam yet again you were enchanted by Theresa May; tough questioning was not on your agenda neither were testing interruptions made as you have with other politicians, Theresa May was permitted to make speeches.

I have yet to decide whether the differences in your attitude was down to proximity, perfume or personality either way your interviewing technique changes when you carry out said interviews via a video link.

[Peter, Fife 16 Mar 2008 09:50:56]

Do the Conservatives really think that voters in the North East are so shallow that selecting Gateshead as the venue for their abridged Spring conference will convince voters of that region that their party are not London centric but are really are concerned about the lives of these citizens.

The Conservatives seem only willing to expend as much ‘energy’ in both numbers of foot soldiers and finances which they feel will return the calculated numbers of regional votes out-with their safe concentrations in the leafy suburbs; Conservatives clearly are operating in a Max – Min policy where the returns must equate closely to the costs hence David Cameron’s decision to all but ostracise the rump that is the Scottish Conservatives at the Blackpool conference in 2007.

Regional votes are key to any Conservative chance of winning the next General Election; those safe seats in the leafy suburbs caused as they are by those of similar wealth or desire for status wishing to congregate in such areas which are clearly perceived as the ‘correct address’; voters in these areas cannot be ignored as much of the ‘middle ground’ in politics exist in these areas.

Much of the figures in the YouGov/Sunday Times poll give clear indication why headline figures such as are quoted on television news bulletins are misleading; ‘Conservative voters’ are mostly unified in their feelings of failure within Government and adoration of their leader, whereas those who claim to be ‘Labour voters’ seem less certain and are spread more from those who feel they are definite to those who claim to be don’t knows.

[Robert, Scotland 16 Mar 2008 09:03:21]

I for one am not impressed by David Cameron's decision to let the cameras into his family home. What would impress me, would be all MPs with a second home letting the cameras into these houses. As it is all the result of the spending of public monies there should be no objection to this. We the purchasers of these properties could judge how well each MP has exercised due diligence in studying the "John Lewis" list and whether they spent with good taste.
MPs who come out of this study with poor ratings could suffer a consequential loss of votes at the next election.

[Craig, Glenrothes 16 Mar 2008 01:21:28]

Modern politics or staged politics. I am told that at 7am, everyone was perfectly groomed. I don't think so! This was certainly nota naturalo setting. There was simply no need for this opportunism. Well done Brown for saying straight away that he won't expose his bairns.

[Clive Gobby 16 Mar 2008 00:43:02]

As you recognised in your broadcast he did not make an financial commitment which was additional to current spending. He carefully said where the money would come from, as you noted.

So why have you changed the report here? I know it more closely follows the Labour line about black holes, but you and we all know that is tosh, don't we?

So why not make your blog piece as accurate and balanced as your broadcast.

[Victor, NW Kent 15 Mar 2008 20:22:48]

With the departure of such as Quisling Davies, Derek Conway and right-winger Bob Spink the Conservative Party is gradually being purged of extremists.

Those Labloggers who pretend that polls are of no significance will not be depressed by the latest YouGov poll - Conservatives 43%, Labour 27%. They may get cheery over the News of the World Poll which shows 40% and 31% with the LibDems better placed than in YouGov with 20%.

I can see nothing strange about Cameron's concept of 4,000 health visitors as opposed to many more untrained or semitrained posts being filled in Sure Start. It is part of the now accepted Conservative policy to start rebuilding the Nation from ground up and that much start at birth.

Labour's concept is to worry about youth when they reach 16 and become problem children. The damage is done long before that.

Recently in the news have been a woman who has 7 children with 5 different partners and another who has 9 with 4 different partners. Such children are permanently at risk and their adult lives have dubious outcomes. It is no wonder that Cameron wants to reward marriage with tax breaks whilst the couple live together. That may be a small incentive but it is better than treating all types of cohabiting partnerships as equa to marriage. In the PC world they may be but in real life they most often fall far short as regards the welfare of offspring.

My main wish at the moment is that we stop matching Labour's spending plans and start saying that we will at least restrain total government expenditure and not allow it to grow with such a frightening rate of debt creation. Spending is worthwhile only when it fulfils a concrete need. Labour is too fond of big numbers - 3-million new houses [now over 200,000 behind schedule, by the way], 20 new "universities".

I liked the promise to clean up Parliament, as will many regular bloggers - lots to do there and the Brown/Martin/Hain/Harman axis are not going to do it.

[Steve Garner 15 Mar 2008 19:11:01]

Jon, are you the same bloke that last weekend blogged that Tory High Command was in crisis over a 3 point opinion poll lead? Perhaps it was one of your colleagues.
Either way, you might not be convinced by Cameron's speech, but judging by You Gov in the Sunday Times as well as the ICM poll you referred to it appears that very few are convinced by Brown and Darling's abysmal budget and their clearly complacent claims about how stable our economy is. Here in the real world we all know it's a mess and these polls show it. This is the real story.

[Bernard from Horsham 15 Mar 2008 17:53:07]

It seems rather bizarre to me that the BBC should be so upset that ITV got the story.
The BBC (IMHO) has spent so long being anti- conservative, It doesn't surprise me in the least that they were not chosen as the broadcaster of first choice. Perhaps it will make the BBC a bit more even handed in its coverage. It is to be hoped so.
As for DC inviting the cameras into his home, I think it was absolutely the right thing to do, but should be on an extremely infrequent basis.