Alarm bells in the Tory high command? The Conservatives' poll lead is shrinking fast, according to a new opinion poll in The Times.

The pre-Budget poll, by Populus, suggests the Tory lead is down from nine points a month ago to just three. Ouch!

Cue Conservative activists sharpening their knives for David Cameron at the party's spring forum in Gateshead next weekend. (Give us tax cuts, they will scream, I predict!)

Voting intentions, according to Populus, are now Conservatives 37 per cent (down three), Labour 34 (up three) and the Liberal Democrats 19 (up two, despite last week's Lisbon Treaty vote shambles).

That's right, the same Populus poll on February 3 was Conservatives 40, Labour 31 and Lib Dems 17, a very different story.

That was one of the bigger Tory leads in opinion polls this year. The biggest were an 11-point lead in a ComRes poll in The Independent on February 24 and 10 points in a YouGov poll in The Sunday Times on January 11 and an Ipsos/MORI poll in The Sun on January 10.

Late last year, after Gordon Brown abandoned his plans for an autumn election, the Tory lead stretched to 13 points in two polls, YouGov in The Sunday Times on December 14 and ComRes in The Independent on November 25.

Why the turnaround? Gordon Brown appears to have got his act together since the turn of the year, after the missing data discs fiasco and other mess-ups.

He has hired new staff in No 10 to beef up the Downing Street operation, he is performing better against David Cameron in Prime Minister's Questions and he appeared more relaxed when he spoke at Labour's spring conference in Birmingham 10 days ago.

Let's not forget, though, Labour enjoyed a 13-point lead over the Conservatives in an Ipsos-MORI poll in The Observer on September 26 last year, one of four polls around that time that gave Labour a lead in double figures.

And still Gordon Brown wasn't confident enough of victory to hold an election!

Read Jon Craig's article on the Conservative's polling fortunes here.

Comments

[Praguetory 16 Mar 2008 08:55:51]

We can deride you again! 16 points.

[Jim Mcleod 13 Mar 2008 09:58:04]

Another Tory has resigned the Tory whip.
How many is that this parliamentary session?
Tories are becoming careless.

[Victor, NW Kent 12 Mar 2008 11:35:12]

Craig

For the benefit of those of us without the special specs please do tell us - exactly - what Brown did on the occasion of the Glasgow Airport attack, over the summer floods, about Northern Rock, about lost data. I can tell you in advance what he did about the last one - nothing whatsoever except to appoint an enquiry whose findings remain secret.

As to the foot and mouth outbreak, he sat back and let a civil servant deal with it. Now we know for certain that the source of the outbreak was the government laboratory, not Merial.

Many councils have still not received all of the financial aid that Brown pledged when the floods were in spate. He did authorise his Housing Minister to state that the government would go ahead with a programme to build new houses on flood plains.

He did absolutely nothing about the Glasgow airport attack apart from sanctioning the arrest of two innocent doctors, one of them in Australia. Appearing on TV deploring disasters is not exactly action.

He did nothing about Northern Rock except to delay for 6 months and then take the only remaing course of action available to him.

None of that is a record to brag about as he has, at all times, been reactive and not proactive.

[Philip, Bristol 12 Mar 2008 09:41:18]

Mike Simpson

So you will be agreeing that now Labour has recovered that Bottler should un-Bottle and go for that election he is sure to win?

For once we are in agreement..election in May then???

PLEASE!!!!

[Peter, Fife 12 Mar 2008 08:33:08]

John, Northumberland,
“...Labour & Lib Dem Manifesto promised a Referendum on the EU Constitution. Now that is deception...”
Only if an EU Constitution is enacted without a referendum
“...Brown talked up an election, bottled out and then claimed that was always his intention. Again deception...”
Shock horror, politician tries to call an election when their prospects are best
“...Brown 'moving the goal posts' on the economic cycle to fit his numbers. Again deception...”
Should we retain a plan for the life of a Government or are adjustments necessary; budget day today, more fiscal adjustments.
“...I just find it curious that you choose such a trivial issue to highlight...”
I did not highlight the issue, but the blogger who did was accused of being dishonest, strange when it is clear who was dishonest.
Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!
Sir Walter Scott

[Mike Simpson 12 Mar 2008 00:47:10]

I was derided in this blog only a couple of weeks ago for saying that the Tory lead would melt away. As soon as there isn't a perceiced crisis, Brown is head and shoulders above opportunist Cameron. He will increasingly be seen as a PM who gets on with the job in the face of adversity. Despite lost discs, nobody lost money. He will also despite Tory claims of impending doom caused by NR be seen to have done the right thing whilst Cameron bounced around all over the place. PMQ's is now the Brown show and not the Cameron show, as he is well prepared and growing in confidence all the time. I also said that Camerons jacket was on a more shoogly peg than any other Tory Leader in the past as he has sold their soul along the way. They put up with him when he is ahead but when it turns, watch them draw the knives. There is no guarantee that he will lead them into the next election! although I feel that he will just about survive. He might get a mini bounce in the polls after his coming Spring conference but it won't last.

Posted by: Craig 10 Mar 2008 22:02:51

Well said Craig! Excellent news both for Labour and for Britain. Shallow Dave's time as Tory Leader could be more short-lived than we first thought!

[Craig, Glenrothes 11 Mar 2008 23:47:49]

The Tories are truly tragic. They are being seen for what they are - Opportunists who are doing everything in their power to talk down Britain, hoping that the economy will go awry so they can take advantage. That is the worst kid of politics. They will reap what they sow and they will deserve it.

Their complacency knows no bounds and they will shrug off the polls like bloggers here, saying that it doesn't feel like that in the country. Wake up and smell the roses. Cameron isn't taking you to his promised land!! You have underestimated Brown from the start and efforts to attack his character are woeful and despised by the public who recognise within themselves that he is a strong leader.
They will be reminded as time goes on of how he dealt with the terrorist attack on Glasgow Airport, the floods, foot and mouth, NR, lost data and so on. The economy will stay robust and Labour will be retuned for a 4th term with an increased majority. I hear you laugh but we will see!!! If Cameron can't be streets ahead now then he never will be.

They should get rid of him and get someone of stature in like Oliver Letwin or Gideon Osborne. Ok, I'm having a laugh now!!

[Northernhousewife 11 Mar 2008 20:39:23]

Rather selective look at the polls here.

Firstly, Populus is always more favourable to Labour than the Tories. It was the last poll from Populus that was out of kilter [for them] not this one. They showed the Tories BEHIND in November when everyone else had them in them clearly in the lead.

Secondly the Comres poll done at the end of February showed the Tory lead INCREASING.

Thirdly the persoanl poll ratings for Brown were bad, for Clegg they were awful and for Cameron, they were great, beat of the rest, by a mile.
[So those who point the finger at him are quite wrong.]
He has not been in the news of late.
Wait until he is in again, and the Tory poll rating will go up... again.
Brown is no more popular than he ever was. In fact over at Anthony Wells, he says the Government's overall position on the underlying figures has got worse.

[Robert, Scotland 11 Mar 2008 19:42:04]

If any Political Party wishes to establish a lead in the opinion polls which will last to and beyond the next election date they could try promising this Country less Government.
This must be the most Governed and costliest run Country in the World. Reflect on this;
Westminister Government = MPs + Special Advisers + Quangoos
Scottish Parliament = MSPs + Special Advisers + Quangoos
Welsh Assembly = WMPs + Special Advisers + Quangoos
Stormont Assembly = IMPs + Special Advisers + Quangoos
With all this mirrored at Regional and Local Council levels.
It does not stop at this, we have to remember the Hundreds of Millions of £s' spent every year on that favourite of all in authority, the Consultant.
I am sure I read recently that Switzerland has a modest collection of Parliament Members, 24 or so and that they meet twice a year. Incredibly their Country unlike ours, works, trains run on time, buses too, Government projects are completed within budget,they do not have to spend almost every Parliamentary day passing new laws or more accurately re-hashing bad laws. It is a cruel twist of fate that we were not allowed to invent and adopt the Cuckoo clock as our National Emblem. Tweet,tweet.

[The Morning Mail 11 Mar 2008 19:28:47]

This clearly has evoked a defence on behalf of Mr Osborne, accusing me of continuing like a dog with a bone; a simple examination will provide evidence that since my original comment my posts were all in response to other bloggers.

My point is clear, he made up his name, denied he had done so and lied that this always was his name; ergo can we trust what he says?

I reiterate people who are known by nicknames, women who chose to continue to use their maiden name, those who use another of their given names and those who have changed their name by deed poll I have no problem with; I do however have problems with those who act to deceive.

Posted by: Peter, Fife 11 Mar 2008 17:26:22

I agree Peter, Gideon Osborne has always struck me as a fraud and has a strange sort of arrogance and swagger for a relative necomer to the HoC. I believe the reason for changing his name to George was to sound less posh and more 'man of the people'. I don't think Gidders will ever have the 'common' touch.

If I was Cameron I would be watching my back, ambitious Gideon, the wallpaper firm heir is about to stab him in a back with a roll of wallpaper from the family firm.

On the matter of the poll, this is extremely bad news for the NuCons and I did predict Cammers would be rumbled this year. It appears it's happened even quicker than I expected.

[John, Northumberland 11 Mar 2008 18:01:09]

Peter and I quote,

"I do however have problems with those who act to deceive". Really?

Labour & Lib Dem Manifesto promised a Referendum on the EU Constitution. Now that is deception.

Brown talked up an election, bottled out and then claimed that was always his intention. Again deception.

Brown 'moving the goal posts' on the economic cycle to fit his numbers. Again deception.

I just find it curious that you choose such a trivial issue to highlight.

[Peter, Fife 11 Mar 2008 17:26:22]

This clearly has evoked a defence on behalf of Mr Osborne, accusing me of continuing like a dog with a bone; a simple examination will provide evidence that since my original comment my posts were all in response to other bloggers.

My point is clear, he made up his name, denied he had done so and lied that this always was his name; ergo can we trust what he says?

I reiterate people who are known by nicknames, women who chose to continue to use their maiden name, those who use another of their given names and those who have changed their name by deed poll I have no problem with; I do however have problems with those who act to deceive.

[Stephen Williams 11 Mar 2008 17:05:01]

Peter,

I'm not concerned as you put it, I am simply trying to get you to see that it isn't an issue with people but you are like a dog with a bone & this is my last comment on this subject.

[Adrian, Lancashire 11 Mar 2008 17:04:57]

I get the impression of a government running out of steam when they start talking about pledging allegances to the Queen. I am a more of a royalist than a republican but even I wouldn't suggest this when there are more pressing matters in the country

[John, Northumberland 11 Mar 2008 16:28:30]

Peter Dude!

The country is facing major economic problems as the result of the debt fuelled consumer boom & the public spending spree of the last decade.

Gordon has refused to honour a Manifesto commitment of a referendum on the EU.

We're still embroiled in wars in the Middle East.

Cabinet Ministers up to their necks in financial misdemeanours.

Immigration is out of control as is crime on our streets.

And you're worried about George Osbourne's name?

Strange point of view!

[Elizabeth Davies Cape Town 11 Mar 2008 16:11:40]

Nick
If you have to ask what a "true conservative" is, you have lost the plot.
If you think Labour will be given more chances to rescue Britain from disaster you are sadly mistaken!

[Chris, Baildon 11 Mar 2008 16:02:21]

What is all this ker-fuffle about peoples names -

If I was called Gideon, I'd change my name (and I was very nearly called Giles - until my dad put his foot down.)

Peter, Fife - I normally respect (if not agree) with your views - on this you've gone a bit wrong.

and as for James "Gordon" Brown - the only thing I have to say is, unfortunately, "I don't feel good" about the state of the country.

[Peter, Fife 11 Mar 2008 15:59:41]

Stephen Williams,

For someone who claims this subject is of no concern you certainly seem concerned; for a politician to change their name, not it must be noted through the process of deed poll, then to deny that such a change had taken place and then to indicate that there name had always been such is being dishonest and as such remains untrustworthy in my eyes.

Are you claiming that honesty is not a characteristic to be sought in our politicians; many claim dishonesty in our politicians without proof yet here we have proof of dishonesty.

[Stephen Williams 11 Mar 2008 15:22:40]

Peter,

What is your problem?

Do you think that floating voters lie awake at night worrying whether or not to vote Tory simply because the shadow chancellor changed his name sometime in the past to which the answer is quite simply NO.

Voters up & down the country will go into the voting booths when the general election is called & vote accordingly to what worries them most about the state of the country & make a choice whether or not to give Labour one more final chance to right the wrongs that they have caused or vote for a change by voting Tory or tactically for the Lib Dems to get rid of a sitting Labour MP.

People will continue to go about their business worrying about things that affect them in their everyday lives so George Osbourne's past or current Christian name is not high on their agenda & it is not the type of thing that will cause sleepless nights but you obviously can’t or won’t see it.

You are trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill so what is your problem. People will in the meantime go about their lives doing the best to make ends meet after seeing less in their pockets & the general state of the country after nearly 11 years of this government & if you can't see that then you have problem.

[Madnurse 11 Mar 2008 15:11:43]

CA & Nick:

Traditional Conservative policies mean, lower tax, less interference by the state and encouraging people to take responsibility for themselves.

The tax burden, which has risen to a record high under this government, can be relieved by cutting back on administration and red tape associated with the machinery of government, both local and national.
This saving will then re-start our economy.

We need to trust business and let them get on with it with out the need for government agencies to constantly monitor and ultimately fine them for going about their business.

I feel Carol-Ann that, it is true that Labour have gone to the right but the Conservatives have wrongly gone to the left. They are both so focused on taking the middle ground, both parties have abandoned their principles and left voters with little real choice.
No real choice means no real democracy.

Nick:
You seem to be a rude young man! Where did I suggest sitting around looking at our navels?
At my local Conservative association, many of the grass root members are critical of Mr Cameron's leadership, especially in relation to the direction he is taking the party. These members are those that do the fund raising and donate money to the party. All I am saying is that, if Mr Cameron alienates these people, he may well struggle to fund many of those changes he wishes to implement. Old fashioned Conservatism works and we should not change the party just for changes sake, if something ain't broke, it doesn't need fixing.

[Anonymous 11 Mar 2008 15:11:15]

Peter

Before you get too high on your soapbox about 'names' politicians use to refer to themselves and what it says about them, may i remind you that old Jimmy Brown in 10 Downing Street is refered to by his middle and last name as he feared he wouldn't be taken seriously as a politician going by the same name as a famous soul singer, James Brown

Just thought i'd mention it

[Victor, NW Kent 11 Mar 2008 14:45:11]

There can be no core Conservative values as society is always in flux and values of Disraeli were not pertinent to Mac Millan nor are his policies pertinent to Cameron.

We simply believe that private enterprise is more efficient than state control, that civil liberties need preservation, that an individual should not be hindered in his efforts to betterment.

Labour believes in the exact opposite - state control is essential, civil liberties impede government, individuals must be forced to conform to a norm and none may be favoured over any other by deed or act, irrespective of merit.

So Labour is not close to the Conservatives but there must often be areas of close agreement which are not driven by ideology.

[Peter, Fife 11 Mar 2008 14:40:05]

Stephen Williams,

Whilst the usual suspects claim that nicknames and maiden names are used by others these differ from Mr Osborne; whilst made up playground names seems the norm for some on this blog I do not think any of the examples quoted made up their own names?

The man is not straightforward; I remain unsurprised that you find such items as not newsworthy, could this possibly be related to the politics of the individual in question.

For individuals who claim such items are not newsworthy why then do you and others feel the need to defend either the individual in question or subjective censorship.

I feel Shakespeare’s quote is appropriate although the gender is not ‘The lady doth protests too much, methinks’

[Nick 11 Mar 2008 14:20:31]

Madnurse,

Great advice - lets all sit around navel gaze and talk to ourselves. Fantastic way to form policy.

Oh - and what exactly is a "true Conservative"?

[carol-ann liverpool 11 Mar 2008 14:09:51]

Madnurse

But what ARE core Conservative values?

As one lot of critics say that Labour is close to Conservative values than Socialist ones and bloggers implying that Labour are left-wing. Actually left-wingers in the party think the party has become too RIGHT wing!

I was listening to Bob Dylan yesterday The Times They Are A Changin' - and I was impressed by the fact that it is as much a representation of the zeitgeist NOW as it was in the 60s!

[Stephen Williams 11 Mar 2008 13:54:05]

Peter,

Philip & Victor have summed up my sentiments perfectly as there are shed loads more problems to be worrying about in the UK rather than debating an individual’s name.

As I have said previously, it holds no relevance or importance whatsoever to people in their everyday lives including my own.

[David Wood Green 11 Mar 2008 13:20:38]

Tories can’t announce any policies or Brown will steal them, the Tories should announce a tax cut freeze to vat for petrol from £1 litre and our good old chancellor will follow

[Madnurse 11 Mar 2008 13:08:25]

Although a Conservative, as I have stated ad nauseum, I am not a David Cameron fan. I feel he was voted in because of his similarities to Mr Blair in both presentation and policies. He was put in prior to the fall of Mr Blair and the party needed someone at that time that had the presentation skills and the ability to project a good image. I still felt David davies would have been the better choice.

As I see it, there is still not much difference between the main two parties and I suspect many think "better the devil you know." In my view, Mr Cameron needs to distance himself from failed Labour policies. I suggest a return to traditional Conservative policies and to keep pointing out Labour's failings.

Mr Cameron needs to stop getting involved in bidding wars with Labour on issues like NHS, Immigration and the need to appears harder on the most vulnerable in our society such as the disabled.

I would like to see a change in leader to a true Conservative that will promote sound Conservative policies. If Mr Cameron has to stay in place, then I would like to see some real leadership from him....but I won't hold my breath. Mr Cameron needs to listen to the members at the local Conservative clubs and associations instead of the media and single issue organisations. The party does not need to follow a PC agenda to modernise, it just needs to set out sound Conservative policies. The New Labour project has failed and yet again, we need to repair the damage done. We do not need to go all PC to achieve this, we need to return to our core beliefs and core policies.
We could free up a fortune by closing down many of the quangos, commissions and agencies so loved by Labour and revitalise the economy with this money. Cut out the red tape put in place by Stalin and let managers manage their business'.
We need to remove the shackles put on business and enterprise by Mr Brown and allow them to do what they do best, namely make money for the country.

[Victor, NW Kent 11 Mar 2008 13:05:09]

Cameron needs some more active front-benchers.

Michael Fallon is more than worthy of promotion to a very senior post and commands a lot of respect on all sides of the house. Grant Shapps and Ed Vaizey are others who work hard as also Nadine Dorries [although a bit one dimensional].

Some of the discards should be brought back such as John Redwood, Graham Brady and Patrick Mercer whilst such as Caroline Spelman and Hugo Swires are no longer functioning at all.

[Victor, NW Kent 11 Mar 2008 12:58:48]

Peter in Fife

Many MPs are known under a name other than their given name, not all of them by abbreviations or nicknames. Tony is one, Dave another, Jacqui, Ed, Nick, Bill, Ken etc etc. Some are even known to us under a surname which is not their legal right such as Yvette Cooper, Harriet Harman and many others.

This hobby horse of yours about Osborne's name is not worth another reply. Find something useful to write about.

[Philip, Bristol 11 Mar 2008 12:48:52]

"Why does an individual in political life choose to change his given name?"

What like "Paddy" Ashdown you mean?

What a particulary pointless argument. I know of many people who don't use their given name in everyday life. And that includes a vicar, a senior manager and a doctor.

Get a life.

[John, Northumberland 11 Mar 2008 12:28:51]

Labour pulling back in the polls? I live in the North East (traditional Labour area)but a bit like Nazi's in post-war Germany, I can't find anyone to admit to supporting Gordon and his gang.

However, taking the figures at face value, I'd say that though most voters now see Labour as incompetent, things aren't bad enough to vote for change. Well just hang on folks, Gordon has spent years getting this economic meltdown just right. This is something he WILL deliver.

Also, the Conservatives have not yet delivered their alternative vision. So the electorate see 'same stuff, different face'.

At the end of the day, only one poll matters. And with the future of the country at stake, this one really will matter!

[neither/niether 11 Mar 2008 12:27:50]

Cameron does need a reshuffle I am a tory but other than Davies, fox, Osbourne Haig & May. I couldn't tell you who else is in the shadow cabinet. Others should stand out and be heard more..
Carol Ann
Sure you would love Ken Clark as leader, you would be sure to get re-elected.. Clark carries to much baggage. Clever!! I admit, but seems 1/3 Labour and only 2/3 CON. and only 1/3 nu cons. No he,s had his day.

[Peter, Fife 11 Mar 2008 12:23:27]

Stephen Williams,

I am sure I will criticise any politician who I feel has attacked their political adversaries without justifying the said attack, attack for attacks sake belongs in the playground; that said I am not in possession of a crystal ball.

Why does an individual in political life choose to change his given name?
You will note he did not use another given name but merely chose one he liked or one that may permit him to better project himself.

Was this because of playground bullying?
Was this indicative of a feeling of inadequacy?
Was this to impress his peers?
Was this to create a better public persona?

Whatever was the reason ‘George’ Osborne is a false projection; many politicians can be described as false but with this individual there is proof.

[Stephen Williams 11 Mar 2008 11:57:08]

Peter,

You stated quite clearly some time ago that you attack David Cameron/the Tories for various reasons so I'm curious to know if you would revert to attacking Labour for attacking a future Tory government when they are back in opposition should the Tories form the next Government either minority or majority.

Also Peter,

I did answer your posting last Friday afternoon when you posted on the Tough Day For All Three Leaders thread,

“Stephen Williams,
The post should have been addressed to Effie, my error.
I do note however that you personally could not care less enough to feel you had to respond; have you monitored this blog all day?

I replied last Friday evening but it wasn’t posted on to the thread by Sky, I still reiterate my point being that I can’t see that the name George Osbourne uses now past or previous being a big thing on voter’s minds when they go into the voting booths as there are many far more important issues facing this the UK.

I was keeping an eye on the thread over the course of the day as you could see for yourself that not many new comments were posted up.

[Peter Buss 11 Mar 2008 11:31:47]

Totallly the wrong conclusions are being drawn from this poll.The same poll showed Camerons personal ratings improving. The problem for the Tories (and I am one) is not their Leader but too many of Cameron's MP's who are desparate to get back to the old failed agenda - including Europe. Perhaps ( but I doubt it) this poll will put to bed once and for all that being an adent Euoesceptic party is a vote winner with the public.

[Victor, NW Kent 11 Mar 2008 11:28:22]

Carol-Ann

Please tell us - what on earth is a "pseudo nucon"? Is it someone like Ken Clarke? like Tony Blair?

[neither/niether 11 Mar 2008 11:25:46]

POLLS may or may not be a good indicater as to how well the parties are doing, but a high % of the public are swayed by who they think is doing a good job, by the polls. More followers that leaders!, and what people read into the polls is that, whoever is strong in the polls, MUST be best to run the country, momentem is all important.

[Stephen Williams 11 Mar 2008 10:56:35]

Philip,

Wishful thinking I'm afraid mate otherwise we could get rid of the Labour government, more Labour councils & Red Ken all at the same time so it would be a win treble.

It would feel like carrying out a good public service to clear out all that rubbish in one fail swoop.

[Khalid 11 Mar 2008 10:26:49]

Insofar as many a matter of opinion, then a rise of [Three Degrees] or there abouts is as expected so as to keep the parties on their toes. Thus far as the liberally minded pollsters, I'm sure parliament would like to know {When Will I See You Again] for the duaration of the sitting?

[Philip, Bristol 11 Mar 2008 10:22:31]

That's it then Bottler...go for an election.

To take the words of Dirty Harry..."Do you think you're lucky punk".

I am sure all the NuLab bloggers would now agree (yeah I bet). May would be nice!!!

[carol-ann 11 Mar 2008 10:11:47]

I think the Obama factor teaches us caution when it comes to polls - I don't think they are as reliable as they once were.

However, I am not surprised that the NuCons under Cammers are losing ground - that is why they are bashing the hell out of Labour at the moment and waiting in the wings to rubbish any policy announcement that Labour make or hype up anything that might show GB in a bad light.

There main aim is to destroy GBs credibility at all costs.
They have wheeled out all kinds of pseudo Nucons to support negative arguments about GBs policies and to damage his reputation on the economy.
They have to discredit Gordon because that is the only weapon they have and doesn't that prove that they KNOW that Dave isn't good enough?

They are gradually trying to develop policies because his strategy of GB bashing is beginning to get boring, but instead of looking at long term policies that show what their aims and ojbectives are, they keep picking up populist issues from Face-book, the blogs and the tabloids and then say how the NuCons our on the side of 'the people'
It is so shallow that even those not well versed in political shenanigans are beginning to see through it.

The Tories have some tough decisions to make: stick with Dave and take the risk that the public will be sick of him by the time of the next election, get him to get some polcies and stick to them or ... get rid.

The last one is a difficult one because time is starting to run out in terms of establishing a new leader.
Giddy is just not an option because the media would make mincemeat out of him.

The only one I can see that gives the Tories any chance whatsoever is a more senior, politician experienced politician like Ken Clark.

He could win the election then step down for some reason and pass the crown to one of the young crew; preferably someone who has a bit more of a wider understanding of ALL levels of society..and, more integrity than Cammers has.

[Fergus 11 Mar 2008 10:09:59]

Clearly, the world only began post-1994 for a number of commenters. Previously (in the absence of serious recession, etc.), the opposition were not often ahead by double figure margins. Also remember the extent by which polls have historically under-estimated Conservative support.

Also, the Conservatives do not need to be ahead by 10% (say) across the board in order to win the next election. The poll that killed the October/November 2008 election was the one from the marginals that showed the Conservatives much further ahead there than in the country as a whole. Differential voting will play a much greater part in the future - the country will not swing one way or another as a whole to anything like the same extent as it has in the past.

To complete Gary Elsby's footballing metaphor - if the Conservatives are in the relegation zone (he wishes!) and are 3 points ahead of Labour, then doesn't that make Labour the Derby County of politics!!

And to those who seem to believe that Brown is "winning" PMQ's, the real truth is that he's merely not performing as badly as previously. But if you have very low expectations, a mere failure is obviously an improvement over a complete disaster. BTW - aren't the people "bigging-up" Brown's PMQ's performance the same people who claimed that PMQ's were irrelevant when Brown was being humiliated every week?

[Victor, NW Kent 11 Mar 2008 10:07:04]

Telephone polling can never be accurate. Many people do not have landlines or any phone at all. Particularly the younger voters are less likely to have landlines.

Over 50% of people approached to poll by telephone refuse to take part.

As the percentage of people polled is one for every 40,000 voters one can see that a lot of possible opinions go unpolled.

Having said that there is little doubt that the anti-Brown opinion is reducing at the moment. That is the fault of the Conservative front bench who, with a few notable exceptions, are largely dormant. A big reshuffle is necessary there and Graham Brday and Patrick Mercer may well return.

I see no attention being brought to the fact that Brown's promise over Iraq troop withdrawals was broken.

The party has been a little incoherent in saying exactly what its options will be if the EU Constitreaty is signed.

It seems clear that Labourites are resolutely united to back their party whatever it does whilst Conservatives are much more likely to view their leadership with frankness and to scan their policies more closely.

We will see that when the local elections come around Conservative support will suddenly coalesce and the Liberals may well get more of a pasting than Labour. After all when most of the poorly run councils are Liberal the electorate's patience must snap at some time, even in Liverpool.

If Boris displaces Red Ken we might see a very large swing to the Conservatives countrywide as he will then have the key to Ken's secret locker and will be able to show how he has really been running London.

[Peter, Fife 11 Mar 2008 09:43:55]

Opinion polls are most commonly based on 1010 people; the poll which gave the Conservatives an 11% lead was substantiated on a majority of 66 of people polled who were likely to vote; clearly a swing of 33 people would wipe out that 11% lead.

It is therefore not in the interests of the pollsters or those who commission these polls to indicate how fragile these extrapolations actually are, even though attempts are made to inject regional prospective and social grades.

I always view these opinion polls with what I consider a healthy scepticism; I feel the only winners are those whose income is dependent on polls being commissioned; I feel opinion polls are merely political fluff irrespective of their fragile predictions.

I therefore do not find it strange that those who celebrated polls which supported their own political views now find these polls of less interest and view them as a less reliable political predictor.

[T. England 11 Mar 2008 08:01:20]

Who takes notice of polls any more? When whoever is losing they say "we dont read too much into polls"!
If they're winning they say " there's still much to do"!

When we have polls that say 88% of the public wont a vote on the EU we dont get what we want anyhow!
When we have polls that show the government could win an election we still dont get one!

What are polls good for?
Absolutely nothing!

[neither/niether 11 Mar 2008 00:14:54]

It has been obvious for some time that Cameron has become very over confident in his believe that Labour can be defeated. They can! because people have lost all trust in them, they have more debt, empty pockets, and bills they can't afford to pay. He cannot keep saying "all will be alright on the day" by then it will be to late. The the announcement on lower stamp duty and inheritance tax proved that point. People want actual answers as to what the tories WILL! do if in power not hairy fairy sound bites, stating what is wrong, they want to hear "but we will do this" to repair it. If Cameron can't deliver confidence that things "WILL" be better under a new tory goverment, he will have to stand down or be replaced, as he has taken the party as far as he can, before it's to late.

[Mentor - Northumberland 10 Mar 2008 23:44:30]

What are the numbers for UKIP and the BNP?

All three the Lib/Lab/Con have been working overtime at sickening people - UKIP and the BNP must be laughing at all the work being done for them!

[Fluffy, London, England 10 Mar 2008 23:39:35]

Hum, I was completely wrong about the first Test result, and now this poll! Maybe I know as much about politics as I do about cricket...?

Oh well, at least I can participate in this blog! Seem to be amongst my own...!

[Gary Elsby stoke 10 Mar 2008 23:27:18]

Dave has played it for all its worth on the anti European front.

No chance is he anti European.

He now sees his party slide into the relegation zone.

Dave will now begin to ponder the 'policy review' bit where he tells it like it is.

'we are doomed if we don't get real'.

I reckon that Dave is circa 1987 labour, but attempting othing positive.

Another casualty, or a Neil Kinnock moment about to happen?

Can't wait to see Tories going cazy because they need to board the 'gravy train'.

Exit Bill Cash.

Gary

[Peter, Rugby 10 Mar 2008 22:35:34]

Call me nieve, but if any one not committed to the Labour Party (ie, normal, regular pundits)wants to inflict another four years of this dispicable mob on the country, then Heaven help us. That said, London's voted for Livingstone twice.

[Craig 10 Mar 2008 22:02:51]

I was derided in this blog only a couple of weeks ago for saying that the Tory lead would melt away. As soon as there isn't a perceiced crisis, Brown is head and shoulders above opportunist Cameron. He will increasingly be seen as a PM who gets on with the job in the face of adversity. Despite lost discs, nobody lost money. He will also despite Tory claims of impending doom caused by NR be seen to have done the right thing whilst Cameron bounced around all over the place. PMQ's is now the Brown show and not the Cameron show, as he is well prepared and growing in confidence all the time. I also said that Camerons jacket was on a more shoogly peg than any other Tory Leader in the past as he has sold their soul along the way. They put up with him when he is ahead but when it turns, watch them draw the knives. There is no guarantee that he will lead them into the next election! although I feel that he will just about survive. He might get a mini bounce in the polls after his coming Spring conference but it won't last.