It's not just the reputations of the candidates which are on the line in tomorrow's vote for London Mayor.

Two rival polling companies, YouGov and Ipsos-MORI, are duking it out as well.

YouGov surveys have consistently pointed to a Boris Johnson victory while Ipsos-MORI has put Ken on top.

In its latest poll on Monday for the Evening Standard YouGov gave Boris an 11% lead, three days earlier in the FT Ipsos-Mori had Ken 1% in the lead.

Click here to read the rest of Adam's look at the battle of the pollsters

Comments

[Merv. Beszant, Dubai 6 May 2008 12:03:38]

Carol-Ann,
Listening to advice, and acting upon good advice, is the key to good management, and maybe Gordon did this more in the initial stages of his premiership, but I am still convinced that he doesn't possess the characteristics necessary to be a leader, and his general personality does leave a lot to be desired.
All work and no play does make Jack a dull boy, especially when he struggles to get the work side right!

[carol-ann livepool 5 May 2008 19:38:19]

Merv

I understand what you are saying but GB showed leadership early on in his premiership when he dealt with a number or crises.
Since then, he seems to have become more obsessed with what Cammers is doing than concentrating on serving the needs of the people, particularly the poor.

Mrs Thatcher was a strong leader but looked what happened to her when she lost touch with reality and wouldn't listen to advice.
She started to look like she had a serious mental health problem.

I believe that GB COULD be a good leader if he concentrated on his own MPs and the public and not Dave and Co's tactics.

[Pete, London 2 May 2008 12:36:34]

If Boris "Buffoon" Johnston 'wins' tonight, will the last person to leave London, please turn off the lights.

Posted by: Mike Simpson 1 May 2008 16:20:42

No Mike, I think you'll find most rational Londoners will want to leave if we have to put up with even more the smarmy stealth communist Ken!!! Do you really want to pay for a Trafalgar square party to celebrate 50 years of Fidel Castro? Cause that's what Ken is planning to do with your tax money! Once a red always a red. HE HAS TO GO!!!!!

[Liz, Suffolk 2 May 2008 11:24:56]

Carol-Ann - youre very well qualified for a PR job in Downing Street. I'm sure they'd welcome you with open arms as one of the few supporters they've got left.

[Merv. Beszant, Dubai 2 May 2008 10:29:53]

Carol-Ann,
As always, I respect your views, but I do have to suggest that Gordon does not have what it takes to be a leader, and his appointment illustrates perfectly the massive gap that there is, in all aspects of life, between being a Leader and being a Second in Command.

[carol-ann liverpool 2 May 2008 09:30:19]

Now the fight back begins.

No, not the polling experts, GB v DC.

Gordon has always resisted attacking Cammers and tried to act in a more statesmanlike way. That has been interpreted as weakness so I think GB needs to fight back on Con-man Dave's biggest weaknesses. He began to do that at the last PMQs but he should have been doing it earlier.

There are still many who believe that Cammers is a shallow opportunist and GB has not made as much of that as he could have.

Gordon should really go after Cameron and we need a bruiser to have a go at Obnoxious - he is another of Dave's weak spots - note how he is kept out of camera sight and is only fed to us in small doses: even the Nucons are ashamed of him!

Gordon needs to get back to looking after the poor and should be taking more off the richest, who can well afford it, to close the poverty gaps.

Gordon should also be exposing how much influence people who are not even registered to vote in this country have over the Nucons and our electoral system.

Nucons have bypassed the rules with, it is rumoured, Lord Cashcard pouring £5 million into local constituencies for local elections and in preparation for the general election and target seats such as in the north and Wales.

It cannot be right that someone whose tax status we don't even know, is having so much power in this country, to which he does not seem to be domiciled or pay tax to.

Twhere are the investigative journalists who should be checking these rumours out - because, if true, how can we hold our heads up and say that we have social justice and democracy if one person can have so much power to influence a country to which he does not seem officially domiciled.

[Matt, London 1 May 2008 19:25:42]

Think that someone else deserves a chance now. Not sure Boris is the best candidate, but I do think he is the candidate to beat Ken. Ken has had a relatively easy ride overall, but I think most of London would like to see less of his smarmy face. Boris may not be the person you want as Mayor, but he should have a really good team behind him.

[neither/niether 1 May 2008 17:36:35]

Londons is in for many years of turmoil, because none of the three main candidated are fit for office. Ken has proved he has gone as far as he is capable of going, and his checkered past is now clearly showing. He should fit in well, on this goverments back benches.

Poor Brian totaly lacks experience to do the job. He states he is no politician, but you have to be to do the job.

Boris I should support being a blue. But with all the political experience he has, I just cannot honestly see him being a success in the position.

God help who has to pick up the reins in 4 years time.

[Merv. Beszant, Dubai 1 May 2008 16:52:06]

Mike,
I hope you're not getting twitchy about the result, and
if Boris wins, Gordon will put out the lights to prevent people finding him!

[Mike Simpson 1 May 2008 16:20:42]

If Boris "Buffoon" Johnston 'wins' tonight, will the last person to leave London, please turn off the lights.

[Liz, Suffolk 1 May 2008 16:13:45]

Liz, Suffolk

I'll bet you watch the X Files

Peter,Fife

Actually, I don't. But I could start if you think it would make a difference to the outcome?

[neither/niether 1 May 2008 16:12:53]

Peter
If thats right, you can see why A. Salmon whats independence. We will really be in the .... then.

[Peter, Fife 1 May 2008 15:36:27]

Madnurse.

Yes, and that was only from the Forties Field.

APACHE'S NORTH SEA team in Aberdeen is preparing the legendary Forties Field for the next 20 years of production.

[Peter, Fife 1 May 2008 15:31:32]

Liz, Suffolk

I'll bet you watch the X Files

[Madnurse 1 May 2008 14:58:48]

The thing that most worries me is this:-

When the British oil and gas runs out, which I am told it will soon, what will our economy base it's wealth creation on then?
We manufacture very little in this country now, so where will our wealth come from?
Has this and previous governments been putting some of the income from the North Sea away or investing it to secure our future or have they just been spending, ooops "investing" it?
I doubt it, given the amount our current tax and waste government has had to borrow.
When the pipeline was shut down during the recent Grangemouth strike, it was said to be costing £50m a day, that is a huge figure to have to do without when the oil runs out, what will replace this income?

Our country, in my view, is just going to become an international provider of remedial services and we all know what people that perform that kind of task are paid...Frightening thought isn't it?

[Chris, Baildon 1 May 2008 14:55:02]

Peter, Fife 1 May 2008 12:31:39

Nice figures.

The number of people in employment for the three months to February 2008 was 29.51 million. BUT there are now more people in the country - so the figure is bound to go up (57Million in 1991 over 60Million now) - not really a great boast when you think about it.

Also the percentage of people in work 74.9 is the same as in 1971 - peaking at 75.9 per cent in mid-1974, and slumping to a low of 67.8 per cent in mid-1983. Hardly a great achievement - matching the 1971 figure.

Also there are 687,600 job vacancies in the UK job market - nearly a record. Not really a big boast for a government - when we have 1.6 million people on the dole.

[Liz, Suffolk 1 May 2008 14:37:01]

Peter - What I meant to say was that the Office of National Statistics is a government department. Benjamin Disraeli said "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics".......'nuff said.

[neither/niether 1 May 2008 14:23:39]

Don't have any reason to doubt the figures you quote Peter, which you obviously believe..
My point is this goverment has had the opportunity no other Labour or conservative goverment has had. With global growth, and easy money, they have not done TRULY enough to get through a credit crunch, or small recession..
Our economy has been built relying on low inflation, high growth, and the financial services industry.

With the economy slowing down and banks not lending, to carry on paying off a debt with an even higher one GB has nothing to fall back on, or financial room to manoever.

If he had spent and saved wisely, he would have room to manoever now, and I for one would put party politics to one side and give him credit, but he hasn't..

Those figs. will start to change quicker that the goverment leads us to believe.

With such high personal debt, encouraged by uncontroled, but "calculated" over lending. Of course you can achieve figs. you are quoting. GB has been gambling with someone elses money, "ours" for his own satisfaction, and we all know that unless you make good use of any winnings, as you get them, eventualy you will lose all.

Reposesions, unemployment, less savings, and results of depleted pension pots, personal and business bankruptcies will start to hit us very hard soon.

How different and safer we would be feeling for our future if we had, had a responsible manager looking after our money.

[Liz, Suffolk 1 May 2008 13:25:53]

Peter - what proof do you have that the figures you quote have not been massaged?

[Liz, Suffolk 1 May 2008 13:21:34]

Peter, Fife.

What? All of them?

It couldn't possibly have anything to do with the price of fuel, and the heavy taxation on businesses, then?

[Peter, Fife 1 May 2008 13:20:48]

T. England

The source and the trends are there for all to access; not swinging each way; check it out.

[Peter, Fife 1 May 2008 13:17:58]

Bruce Hulmes

Check for yourself the source is listed.

[T. England 1 May 2008 13:16:41]

Peter, Fife!
You can hit us with as many statistics as you like but the bottom line is that I dont know anyone that is feeling good about the economy, I dont know many that are confident their job is safe.
I think it's time we stoped all this sillyness with statisic's & polls because they can be swung each way, this particular blog proves my point,I think we should take human feelings into account!
I know lefties dont like feelings because Labour think they can buck human nature with laws to make us tolerant, but humans have feelings that overide ANY poll, statisic or spin.
When people in general feel bad that is a pointer that things ARE bad no matter how you spin it!
Peter! You keep keeping on & so will we!

Life under Labour!
Really hurts doesn't it?!

[Peter, Fife 1 May 2008 13:13:39]

Liz, Suffolk

Corporate greed; at times of financial uncertainty directors of companies which are on a less than secure footing tend to cash in their assets.

A wobble in the global market causes companies to contract or close down to protect their assets, compounding as they do the problems already in the market; it can end up in recession with the losers being the general public, those guilty of corporate greed will be ready to expand or start up when the financial indicators are more promising.

It is happening now in the banking sector.

[Bruce Hulmes 1 May 2008 13:10:15]

Peter,Fife.
Do your statistics mention;

The type of employment
people have gone into.
is it manufacturing, is it none productive paper pushing in local government or the civil service or job creation schemes such as paying school children to stay at school.

What salaries do these jobs pay, do they pay enough for a person to be independant of government credits.

What is the security of theses jobs long term or short term contract.

Statistics are meaningless unless tied into the overall big picture.
We could have Labours and the CBIs dream scenario 100% employment all on the minimum wage.

[Liz, Suffolk 1 May 2008 12:53:35]

Why is is then (Peter) that quite large businesses and factiries in my area have started to close?

[Peter, Fife 1 May 2008 12:31:39]

“...The trend in the employment rate is increasing and the trends in the unemployment and inactivity rates are falling. There has been a small fall in the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance benefit. The number of job vacancies has increased. Growth in average earnings, excluding bonuses, has increased, but earnings growth including bonuses has fallen.

The employment rate for people of working age was 74.9 per cent for the three months to February 2008, up 0.2 from the previous quarter and up 0.6 over the year. The number of people in employment for the three months to February 2008 was 29.51 million. This is the highest figure since comparable records began in 1971 and is up 152,000 over the quarter and up 456,000 over the year. Total hours worked has increased by 0.1 million to reach 939.6 million.

The unemployment rate was 5.2 per cent for the three months to February 2008, down 0.1 over the previous quarter and down 0.4 over the year. The number of unemployed people decreased by 39,000 over the quarter and by 90,000 over the year, to reach 1.61 million. The quarterly fall in unemployment mainly occurred among people under 25 years old.

The claimant count was 794,300 in March 2008, down 1,200 over the previous month and down 110,600 over the year. This is the lowest figure since June 1975...”

(Office of National Statistics: Published on 16 April 2008 at 9:30 am)

Don’t listen or read the spin check the statistics.

[Liz, Suffolk 1 May 2008 12:28:17]

What else can they tax us on? Air!!

[neither/niether 1 May 2008 11:47:55]

Churchil Manchester
10 years in power with the unpresidented upturn in globle wealth, (that GB loves to take credit for.) Yes, Billions have been put into public services, but at what price.

Billions more taxes paid by us, pensions ruined and robbed, billions wasted in quangoes etc etc. The most authoritism goverment in modern history.
They say there was sleaze in the last tory goverment, and there was, but it was nothing compaired to what this Labour goverment has carried out.

Brown and Blair have massaged figures since they came into power, far beyond whatever the tories or past Labour goverments ever did.
This goverment knows how much it has wasted an opportunity. The upturn in globle growth gave it. Not only has it wasted through bad management of the ecconomy, (not good management as they like to tell us) we have record personal debt, because GB needed MORE money for public services they promised, but not the money to spend, because of what I have already stated.

They harp back to the hard times we had in the 90s, to try and justify decisions they have taken, on things like the new deal, tax credits etc. In that period any goverment would have had to go through a global recession, GB talks about having to make tough decisions!! well it makes you cringe to think how he could have got us through that period, without the free and easy money he has had coming in.

If GB hadn't missused the easy money! that came his way over these last 10 years, these so called benifits ( the new deal, tax credits) would not have been needed.
Poverty could have been reduced by even more, by sensible use of our money.

A book could, and know doubt will, be written about the pros and cons of this goverments record in power.
The sad thing is 3/4 of it will be about the cons. The public is now seeing this, and he has no where to hide, or easy money to con people.

[Gerry Coe Spain 1 May 2008 11:46:18]

I hope Boris gets through.He is a breath of fresh air although accentric.I do believe he is basically honest.I don't think Ken can really be trusted and as for Brian I just don't take to the man.Good luck Boris

[Julian the Wonderhorse 1 May 2008 10:34:12]

Love the woman from MORI backtracking wildly.

Another brilliant prediction from you again? You were briefing the press like mad that Ken was ahead. Now you try to claim you didn't. What is it with this spinmeisters who think because they say something often enough it becomes true / people believe them?

Time for another career, methinks

[Liz, Suffolk 1 May 2008 10:15:36]

.....and Labour could make a lot of money....but I'll bet they've already thought of that.

[Liz, Suffolk 1 May 2008 09:53:38]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we are able to vote by text soon. It would solve their problem of getting people to turn out.

[trisha bethnal green 1 May 2008 09:41:47]

I have a major concern regarding these elections!!!!
Why are the votes not being counted tonight???? it has been the way, that from the polling stations to counting stations, all aspects over seen, but this time my vote is being transferred to mulberry place council offices (tower hamlets)
were they will remain over night. this labour council is the most 'untrustworthy' in all areas of office,i have ever known, what guarantees do i have that my vote wont be
tampered with and why have the media not asked the questions???????
i asked the policeman at the polling station, he said he had no idea but thought maybe the police may guard the boxes, unless you dont trust the police? i responded the problem with that is the higher echelons of the police are highly political now, he agreed, but did say this is not zimbawe, i raise an eyebrow, my thoughts.. first postal votes allowing fraud to take place on a large scale, our democratic right to vote on the EU constitution being denied,the proposal for 42 days detainment, the level of unaccountability especially in high office, the constant lies being pedalled by this government propped up by the media, i think that we are lucky that violence hasnt followed, but maybe that will change if labour and labourites feel threatned.
labour have consistentley tampered with election processes, under the guise of trying to improve turnout, turnout will imrove when people believe they can trust politicians, something that will not happen for labour.

[T. England 1 May 2008 07:49:10]

Polls!
Are we to believe them now?

[Mentor - Northumberland 30 Apr 2008 20:00:45]

: Churchill. Manchester

Funny observation you have!

Remember where the country was in 1979. Refresh yourself and accept that this Labour Government have achieved the very same debacle times 10!

DISASTER!

[Julia Clark, London 30 Apr 2008 18:53:33]

Just a gentle correction Adam: Ipsos MORI's polls have not shown a statistically significant lead for Livingstone, although we do know they have been reported that way occasionally in the press.

A poll by definition does not show that a candidate is in the lead unless the gap is statistically significant. None of our mayoral polls have shown either Johnson or Livingstone significantly ahead of the other.

The sample sizes (between 600 and 1,000 for different polls) mean the polls have a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 or 4 percentage points on each candidate’s share of the vote. Therefore our most recent headline figure of 52-48 could mean Ken's share is anywhere between 48 and 56, and Boris' share is anywhere between 44 and 52.

Our polls show the two main candidates in a 'statistical dead heat' -- and it is simply too close to call!

I hope that helps clarify things!

Cheers,

Julia Clark
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute

[Churchill. Manchester 30 Apr 2008 18:52:24]

The people ditching Labour have very short memory. They forgot where they and the country was Ten(10)yrs ago.

After all the good things done that everyone is enjoying, they want to destroy by bringing the destroyer. I think people are smart enough to see good and bad instead of hype.

If they chose to ditch Labour,
they will have to face and suffer the consequence both locally and nationaly for next four or five years. THINK AGAIN.

[neither/niether 30 Apr 2008 18:47:03]

Im a tory Liz, but I dont think GB will be saying any prayers tonight.
You must reach a stage when everything that can go wrong, does goes wrong.
There is no point in him trying to fight these local elections,
it will only look worse should he lose really bad. I think he will have a re-shuffle after, to look as though he is in charge, and blame the ones that lose their jobs for a bad result.

With two years left he will hope that things will change and voters will come back, forgetting these bad times that he is responsible for.
I hope that they don't, and the tories stay united and keep in front.

[Mentor - Northumberland 30 Apr 2008 17:35:26]

Where's the money Gordon?

Party HQ didn't get, so where is it, was it cash, was it cheques if so where were the cheques paid into, what account were they paid into?

[Damon - Birmingham 30 Apr 2008 17:26:42]

Fists fly? I didn't realise John Prescott was campaigning.

[SJ, Gloucestershire 30 Apr 2008 15:39:21]

Lets prey to God that YouGov have got it spot on. I can't abide these Labour idiots any longer. My frustration with this Government is starting to make me ill.

[Merv. Beszant, Dubai 30 Apr 2008 15:32:33]

Adam,
You are likely to be accused of being anti Labour for showing a picture of Jack Straw and Ed. Balls during a Cabinet Meeting discussion!

[Khalid 30 Apr 2008 15:08:01]

Oh dear, [Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow-Amy Winehouse]?

[Northernhousewife 30 Apr 2008 15:05:57]

Labour have been trashing YouGov at every opportunity for their own ends.

We all remember their 11 point lead during the conference session [seems like a lifeime ago!].
Only one polster showed them with such a big lead. YouGov. They were not complaining then. They made hay with it. Peter Kelner was all over our TV screens explaining that big lead.

Now that same pollster [which is run by a guy married to a Labour peer!] is telling a different story, they decide to besmerch the reputation of a friend, the company, and its hard working staff - when the reputation at issue is MUCH closer to home.

Next it will be our fault we don't want to vote for them.

I hope YouGov are proved right about Boris. I hope Labour MPs have to eat their own nasty bitter words.
If YouGov nationally are right, Labour are regularly in the twenties and polling 18 points behind the Tories.
That will put the gitters up 'em.

[Madnurse 30 Apr 2008 15:04:48]

I think the one thing that is certain is, that it is too close to call.

The only poll that matters is the one to be held on Thursday.

Mr Livingston still appears to be popular amongst Londoners despite the shadows cast over his time in office.
I suspect that, had the Labour government not been so unpopular at this time, Mr Livingston would win by a mile. I suspect the electorate will see Thursday's elections as the opportunity to give Labour a bloody nose, the question is, will it be a minor nose bleed or a nose that needs surgical intervention and resetting?

One thing I did notice at the start of Sky's Mayoral Candidates debate last Monday was that, when Mr Livingston was introduced at the start of the show and the camera panned across the audience, it was mainly those that one may describe as not being indigenous islanders that were clapping. I don't know if this was deliberate or a coincidence but it would be interesting to have figures available that broke down the ethic origins of those that voted for each candidate. Mr Livingston appears to be more popular amongst the non white groups and some of this group attempted to question Mr Johnson on his attitudes to race at the debate. Mr Paddick as I understand it, was extremely popular when he was in charge of policing in Brixton which has a large Afro-Caribbean population.

I don't know if these figures will be available, but they would certainly make interesting reading.

[Liz, Suffolk 30 Apr 2008 14:56:19]

I'll bet Gordon will be saying his prayers tonight.