Ladbrokes the bookmaker have closed their book on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election because the Tories have become unbackable dead cert winners.
The closing price was 1/16 on a Conservative victory and not surprisingly punters are not interested at such odds.
Robin Hutchinson of the bookies says it looks so unfair that: "If the parties were boxers they wouldn't be allowed in the same ring at the moment."
Meanwhile interest is hotting up in the book for Gordon Brown's successor...
In my view nothing in UK Politics is ever as certain as odds of this magnitude suggest.
Written by Adam, 20 May 2008
When will people learn that every period of government ends in failure and rejection under the democratic principal. Politics is just a game. You say what you need to say to get silly people excited and to get elected. Once in office you use power to exploit your personal aims and line your pockets. Everybody does it but like children we expect something different - we buy into the spin and never learn.
Posted by: Frank 22 May 2008 17:44:27
Tony.
Labour are fulfilling their dreams, carrying out social engineering experiments which by and large will never affect themselves or their immediate families. That is the reason for the dash for cash, money insulates one from everyday fears problems and dangers that affect the poorest first, second and most.
A prime example are the Blairs who could ever call these two socialist!!, they call for a meritocracy then pull strings for their children, they call for wealth distrubution when they realy mean more for themselves.
They call for inclusivness and then distance themselves from the society they have helped shape by moving to the shires. They insist that the country is a safer place then surround themselves with bodyguards financed by the tax payer.
They feel for those without the resources to get their first home and then help fuel the housing price bubble by purchasing six homes.
They worry about global warming and then spend large periods flying to talking appointments for the sole purpose of further enrichment.
Anyone who thinks this is envy talking, well no I like making money infact it takes up a fair amount of my time, but I do not do it under the cloak of saving mankind I make it because it brings freedom, that simple.
Posted by: Bruce Hulmes 21 May 2008 13:50:13
Bruce
Do you know when i was teenager i remember seeing on the tv and in newspapers about the loony-left of Labour and the mad marxists etc, do you think its a element of that affecting Labour?.
As a normal bloke all i do is look around me, do i have less money now, do i feel safer, do i think my taxes are spent well, are there better services, is the NHS better, can i find a dentist, are schools better and lots more things i could mention.
None of those are positive for me and thats how most people judge their government, selfishly or not what is in it for us the taxpayer. when you dig a little deeper you can see just what an utter(i dont doubt they had good intentions)mess in so many things this government have made, i wont list them as i think most people know what they are, along with a waste of money that is totally amazing.
Posted by: Tony 21 May 2008 12:05:42
Bookie's rarely get it wrong.Labour's juvenile campaign tactic's have shown just how stupid they think people are.
Posted by: Seb/uk 21 May 2008 10:30:02
[The Winner Takes It All-Abba]
Posted by: Khalid 20 May 2008 23:15:01
Tony.
Not just Labour but the extremists who support and vote for Labour.
Only a person with an extremist or an hidden agenda would support a party that is intent on the destruction of this country as we and our parents knew it.
That is why record numbers of our people have left this country in the last ten years, to be replaced at a ratio of 2:1 by immigrants what we are seeing is the planed turn over of the British population to suit a political dogma.
Posted by: Bruce Hulmes 20 May 2008 21:12:12
i am convinced that gordon + his merry band of mps are determined to bancrupt every person in the u.k.makes sence to them, buy all the properties from the peasants via the receivers for peanuts + rent them back to us peasents + make a handsome profit!gordon beaware the peasants will soon be on the streets revolting. p.s. can i have 10 grand for a new bathroom + £800 for a new plasma tv i have seen at john lewis.also i seem to be having problems getting a mortgate to fill up my mondeo fuel tank.
Posted by: eik 20 May 2008 19:53:46
Ouchhh, got a bad tooth ache! Adam, and taking it out on you. Forget the last sentence please..
Posted by: neither/niether 20 May 2008 18:04:05
What on Earth has happened to the land of my birth?
Posted by: Madnurse 20 May 2008 17:03:14
Labour !!!
Posted by: Tony 20 May 2008 17:49:08
The longer this sort of media garbage goes on the odds on a conservative victory reduces..
The media will have done their job, and given themself something to get their teeth into after the election.
If the Tories don't win with at least a 15% swing they will say they have failed.
If the Liberals won or at least got a large swing towards them, the Tories would again be losers according to the media.
Labour can't lose anyway because that,s what expected.
Should they lose with just a small swing to the Tories or Liberals, the Tories would be accused of failure and Labour doing better than expected and maybe turning things around.
Reporting on events and interviewing MPs forcing the truth from them, that's their job, not getting involved into situations that can influence voters. Media programs are getting like reality shows cheap tv.
Posted by: neither/niether 20 May 2008 17:38:01
Tim:
I agree about the Stalinist state in relation to keeping every Email and telephone call on a big database.
Imagine, if you would, the outcry if the government said they wanted to open all private letters, photocopy them and store them before forwarding them on to the addressee. What's the difference between electronic mail and paper mail?
Who said we are not becoming a police state?
What on Earth has happened to the land of my birth?
Posted by: Madnurse 20 May 2008 17:03:14
Rest assured, when Labour get a kicking in the by-election Gordon will be trawling the TV channels listening and learning. Feeling our pain. If I thought for one minute he was feeling my pain, I would happily stick red hot pokers in my eyes all day!
Posted by: SJ, Gloucestershire 20 May 2008 16:56:19
It isn't too difficult to work out the rationale behind the bookies odds.
Elections all came down to basic decisions as to whether the Public wants to buy or not, what is on offer.
NewLab seem to think that what the Public want to buy, is
More Brown
More Direct Tax
More Waste
More Bin Taxes
More Tax Credit form filling
More Intrusion from Government Jobsworths
More Cameras
More Email and Telephone monitoring
More Pressure on Households
etc, etc
But that isn't what the Public want to buy, thank you very much.
But NewLab thinks it is.
Therefore... either the electorate is wrong or NewLab is wrong.
No doubt NewLab will tell us all their opinion as to why the electorate is wrong.
On a secondary and Utilitarianistic note,
I had a £2 bet on NewLab at Crewe at 8/1.
If NL win it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things and I can maybe buy a portion of a premium bond with any winnings.
If NL lose, the JS Mill 'greatest happiness principle' might start to spread across the Nation.
(NewLab like quoting JS Mill.
'Tis a pity they don't understand him)
Posted by: Tony, Yorkshire 20 May 2008 16:45:41
Doubtless based more on saving the bookies coffers than astute political judgement!
It's not even a marginal seat and is dependant upon far too many non-Tories to be a racing certainty.
Posted by: Bill, Middle England 20 May 2008 16:29:30
The sooner this Labour government go the better for all concerned.
Just been reading about the 'plot' to retain every e-mail and phone call in the country in the interests of 'national security'. What the hell is happening here? Surely this is tantamount to a Stalinist state. It's ludicrous!
LABOUR, LABOUR, OUT, OUT, OUT
Tim
Posted by: tim, stretford 20 May 2008 16:27:10
Hang on a minute neither/niether. Where does it say in Adam's report that 'the party' are quoting the odds. It's the bookmakers quoting, noth 'the party' so they are hardly 'deluding' themselves.
Do wake up!
Linda F
Posted by: linda, altrincham 20 May 2008 16:22:21
I hope the voters of Crewe don't see it as a foregone conclusion, and that they vote for whoever they think they should vote for.
If anyone from Crewe is reading this; remember that the bookie's odds take into account what people have put their money on, not just the actual likelihood of something happening; the odds will change if more people put their money on something even though the likelihood of the result stays the same, so please do still go out and vote because as per Adam's final note it's not a certainty by any means.
Posted by: Steve, London 20 May 2008 16:14:45
I suppose it will take the humiliation of Labour losing this by-election for Brown to realise him & his party really are finished, as I wipe away a tear (from laughing) from my face I still truly believe that Brown & his cabinet have lost everything because of their sheer ignorance of what Labour were/are doing to their core English white voters in favour of “others”, it has made people bitter towards the party that has done this.
For example, Brown has back tracked & even tried a little bribe thing to say sorry over the ten pence tax but this has fell on deaf ears, surely he must be sussing for himself his & his parties bad popularity is down to more than the ten pence business!
Life under Labour!
Two years & counting!
Posted by: T. England 20 May 2008 16:06:10
You are right Adam 1/16 on are ridiculous odds, I suspect it will be a closer run thing. Why the disparity? I guess the polls being conducted in day-light might be the problem. Currently no-one wants to be identified as still voting New Labour in case this results in an increase in medicine(s) or worse still, a visit from people wearing white coats.
Posted by: Robert, Scotland 20 May 2008 15:58:07
Agreed Adam those odds are stupid. Just a win would have been accepted a month ago. Any party who gets carried away with these sort of figs are diluding themselves. If they think it will continue.. their celebrating 2 years to early. One bad PMQs could alter those odds
Posted by: neither/niether 20 May 2008 15:34:42
Adam,
If somebody with your experience has the view expressed in your final paragraph, then Gordon could be relaxing in his home in Scotland in the not too distant future, and I'm sure it will be as much of a relief to him as it will be for the majority of the nation!
Posted by: Merv. Beszant, Dubai 20 May 2008 15:19:04
I don't know zip about betting odds, but I do think Gordon Brown will have to go if Crewe falls to the Conservatives on Thursday. It will be "game over" Gordon.
Posted by: Elizabeth Davies Cape Town 20 May 2008 15:18:25
Since you posted the same thread twice. I think its probably doubly certain.....
;)
Posted by: Bernard from Horsham 20 May 2008 15:03:41